Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq slide as sell-off resumes ahead of Nvidia earnings, jobs data

U.S. equities slid for a third day—Nasdaq down ~0.8%, S&P 500 ~0.9% and the Dow ~1.2%—as investors trimmed risk amid fading odds of Fed rate cuts (markets price a roughly 45% chance of a cut vs. 62% a week ago) and awaited the delayed September jobs report on Thursday. All eyes are on Nvidia’s quarterly report Wednesday after filings showed Thiel Macro and previously SoftBank selling stakes, making the print and guidance a key test of whether AI-driven earnings can sustain recent rallies; counterbalancing tech concern, Berkshire Hathaway disclosed an almost $5 billion stake in Alphabet, sending GOOGL sharply higher. The week’s retail slate (Walmart, Home Depot, Target, Lowe’s, Gap) will provide a fresh read on consumer strength, while dislocated themes—from Zymeworks/Jazz’s positive cancer-trial results to XPeng’s below-consensus Q4 revenue guide—are adding stock-specific volatility that will influence near-term market leadership and risk appetite.

Analysis

U.S. equity benchmarks extended a three-day decline on Monday with the Nasdaq down ~0.8%, the S&P 500 off ~0.9% and the Dow down ~1.2% (roughly a 550-point move), driven by fading odds of a Fed rate cut (market-implied probability falling to ~45% from 62% a week ago) and a pick-up in the VIX consistent with the moderately negative risk-off tone. Investors are front-running two major macro-earnings catalysts this week: Nvidia's quarterly report on Wednesday and the delayed September jobs release on Thursday, both positioned to reset expectations for growth, margins and Fed policy timing. Nvidia is a focal point—shares fell nearly 2% on Monday after filings showed Thiel Macro and earlier SoftBank sales; the stock remains up ~42% YTD but ~12% off its high, making the company’s beats and guidance a critical test for the AI-led market narrative. Offsetting stresses, Berkshire disclosed a ~17.85 million-share (~$4.9bn) stake in Alphabet, which jumped to a record high, while idiosyncratic drivers (positive Zymeworks/Jazz trial data, XPeng’s below-consensus Q4 revenue guide) suggest elevated stock-specific volatility through this earnings and data-centric week.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Size or hedge NVDA exposure ahead of Wednesday’s report given recent insider/large-holder selling and the stock’s outsized market influence, consider options-based downside protection if holding sizeable positions
• Favor selective, high-quality Big Tech exposure such as Alphabet where Berkshire’s ~ $4.9bn stake has provided near-term support, but avoid broad-levered bets on AI cyclicality until guidance confirms sustainable margin trends
• Trim rate-sensitive and high-duration risk or add short-duration hedges given the reduced probability of an imminent Fed cut and the importance of Thursday’s September jobs print for policy trajectory
• Treat upcoming retailer prints (WMT, HD, TGT, LOW, GAP) as key signals on consumer resilience; avoid enlarging cyclical retail positions until revenues/margins confirm strength
• Expect heightened idiosyncratic volatility in biotech (ZYME/JAZZ) and China EV names (XPEV); prefer event-driven sizing and refrain from momentum chasing after sharp pre-earnings moves