Forget OpenAI -- Here Are 2 IPOs I Can't Wait For in 2026

2026 is shaping up to be an active IPO year, with reports that large private companies such as SpaceX and OpenAI are planning public debuts; Motley Fool analysts Matt Frankel and Tyler Crowe discuss two smaller IPOs they are watching in a video published Jan. 23, 2026. The piece is forward-looking and advisory in tone (stock prices referenced were morning prices on Jan. 22, 2026), signalling potential deal flow and investor interest in late-stage tech and AI-related listings but contains no new financials or filings that would immediately move markets.

Analysis

Market structure: An active 2026 IPO calendar (big names + many smaller deals) is a net positive for exchange operators, lead underwriters and market makers — primary beneficiaries include Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ), large banks (GS, MS) and flow/prop desks (VIRT). Fee and trading-volume leverage is asymmetric: a 10–20% rise in new-issue volume can lift exchange transaction revenue by mid-single digits year-over-year while crowding increases short-term volatility and underwriting competition, pressuring deal economics for smaller boutique banks.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include SEC/regulatory intervention on disclosure/SPAC rules, a high-profile IPO failure triggering a rout, or a macro shock (10-yr US yield +50–75 bps quickly) that kills risk appetite. Expect immediate effects (days–weeks) as volatility and spreads widen around listings, short-term revenue bumps over 1–2 quarters, and structural impacts on private-market valuations and lock-up-driven supply over 6–18 months.

Trade implications: Direct plays favor exchange equities (NDAQ) and top-tier underwriters; relative trades should long NDAQ vs ICE for tech-heavy pipelines. Options hedges (90-day call-spreads on NDAQ or buying small-cap IV via IWM calls/straddles around clustered listings) exploit anticipated volatility; rotate away from late-stage private secondary marketplaces and IPO-specialist SPAC vehicles.

Contrarian angles: Consensus underestimates lock-up and secondary-sell pressure — many 2020–21 SPAC parallels show initial pops followed by multi-month declines once supply hits market. The upside from headline IPOs (SpaceX/OpenAI) could be front-loaded; plan for mean reversion and focus on realized-volume metrics (not just announcements) before levering positions.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ) over the next 2–6 months to capture listing and transaction-fee upside; target a 15–25% upside in 3–9 months and set a hard stop-loss at -8% to limit post-IPO volatility risk.
• Implement a relative-value pair: long NDAQ (2%) / short Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) (1.5%) for 3–6 months to capture expected outperformance from tech-heavy listings; unwind if the NDAQ/ICE spread compresses to < -2% or if the 10-year US Treasury yield rises >50 bps in 30 days.
• Buy a defined-risk options position to play increased issuance volatility: purchase a 90-day ATM call / sell 10–15% OTM call spread on NDAQ sized to 0.5–1% of portfolio value (max loss = premium) and add if new-issue trading volume exceeds $2bn/day for two consecutive weeks.
• Delay any direct allocation to headline mega-IPOs (e.g., SpaceX/OpenAI) until at least 90 days post-listing; allocate up to 1% initial exposure then scale to target over 6–12 months, trimming on any price appreciation >30% within the first 90 days to avoid lock-up-driven reversals.