Marcos’ Rating Recovers Before Philippine Corruption Crackdown

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s net satisfaction rating recovered to +10 in June from -10 in April, according to a Social Weather Stations survey, with gross satisfaction rising 8 percentage points to 46%. This improvement, which occurred prior to an announced corruption clampdown, suggests a stabilization in public sentiment, though his current approval remains considerably below his peak shortly after taking office.

Analysis

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s net satisfaction rating demonstrated a significant recovery, moving from -10 in April to +10 in June, according to a Social Weather Stations survey. This 20-point swing was driven by an 8 percentage point increase in gross satisfaction to 46% and a 12 percentage point decrease in dissatisfaction to 36%. Crucially, this improvement in public sentiment occurred prior to the announcement of a new anti-corruption initiative, suggesting the administration is launching this policy from a slightly stronger political footing. However, the current +10 rating remains substantially below the peak of +68 recorded shortly after Marcos assumed office in June 2022, indicating that while recent sentiment has stabilized, a considerable erosion of political capital has occurred over his tenure. This dynamic points to a fragile political environment where recent gains in approval could be temporary, and underlying public discontent remains a key factor for governance stability.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should view the recovery in President Marcos' approval as a modest positive for near-term political stability, but closely monitor the implementation and public reception of the announced anti-corruption drive as a key test of his administration's effectiveness.
• Given that the current satisfaction rating of +10 is drastically lower than the post-election peak of +68, portfolio managers with Philippine exposure must continue to factor in heightened political risk and the potential for sentiment to reverse.
• Track subsequent polling data to determine if the corruption crackdown provides a sustained lift to public approval, as this will be a crucial indicator of the government's ability to advance its economic and policy agenda.