Earnings Preview: Intel (INTC) Q2 Earnings Expected to Decline

Intel (INTC) is projected to report a significant year-over-year decline for Q2 2025, with consensus estimates at $0.01 EPS (down 50%) and $11.87 billion in revenue (down 7.5%). Analyst sentiment has turned more bearish, evidenced by an 8.3% downward revision in EPS estimates over 30 days and a negative Earnings ESP of -350%, making an earnings beat unlikely despite the stock's Zacks Rank #1. The July 24 earnings release will be critical, as actual results relative to these lowered expectations could drive near-term stock movement.

Analysis

Intel (INTC) is approaching its Q2 2025 earnings report on July 24 with deeply subdued Wall Street expectations. The consensus outlook projects a significant year-over-year contraction, with earnings per share (EPS) expected at $0.01, a 50% decline, and revenues at $11.87 billion, a 7.5% decrease. This bearish sentiment is reinforced by a recent 8.3% downward revision in the consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days. Further compounding the negative outlook is a Zacks Earnings ESP of -350.00%, indicating that the most recent analyst estimates are substantially more pessimistic than the already low consensus. This creates a conflicting signal against the stock's current Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy), a combination that the report notes makes it difficult to conclusively predict an earnings beat. While Intel has a history of surpassing expectations, including a notable +1,200% surprise last quarter, the current set of leading indicators suggests a challenging environment and a low probability of a positive surprise based on Zacks' proprietary model.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should be aware of the significant downside risk reflected in the consensus estimates, with both earnings and revenue projected to decline sharply year-over-year.
• The conflicting signals of a highly negative Earnings ESP (-350%) and a top-tier Zacks Rank #1 suggest a high degree of uncertainty and potential for volatility around the earnings release, warranting caution for any new or existing positions.
• Given the low expectations, focus should be less on a marginal beat or miss and more on management's forward-looking guidance and commentary on business conditions, as this will likely be the primary driver of the stock's performance post-announcement.