This gas stock just cleared a 2014 peak and is set to continue higher, says Katie Stockton

Sunoco LP is described as breaking out to new all-time highs, with a measured move target near $78 and support in the low $60s, while the 50-day/10-week moving average sits near $66. The bullish setup is reinforced by strong monthly and weekly MACD momentum, and the stock is expected to benefit from continued firmness in crude oil prices. Relative performance versus the S&P 500 is also turning up, with the uptrend still intact.

Analysis

SUN looks more like a duration trade on energy volatility than a simple chart breakout. If crude stays firm or mean-reverts higher, the stock can outperform because the market is effectively paying for commodity optionality while ignoring how quickly midstream/cash-flow names can rerate once trend-following capital re-enters.

The second-order winner is not just SUN holders, but adjacent MLPs and refiners that benefit from a broader reopening of the energy complex’s relative performance. A sustained move in SUN to the upper end of the projected range would likely force underinvested generalists to add beta through baskets rather than single names, which can extend the move beyond what fundamentals alone would justify.

The key risk is that this is a crowded-looking momentum setup in a narrow market tape: if crude stalls or rolls over for even 2-4 weeks, the setup can lose sponsorship quickly because technical ownership is doing more work than earnings revisions here. The low-$60s support zone is important, but the more meaningful failure signal is a break back below the 10-week average combined with weakening relative strength versus SPX, which would imply the breakout was merely a liquidity event.

Contrarianly, the market may be underestimating how much of SUN’s move is already a forward discount of better energy sentiment rather than a clean earnings upgrade story. That makes the trade attractive for trend continuation, but less attractive for fresh long-only capital chasing strength after the fact unless it is framed with defined risk or paired against a weaker energy proxy.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Go long SUN on a retest of the 10-week average or prior breakout zone; target the measured-move objective with a stop just below intermediate support, for roughly 2:1 upside/downside if crude remains constructive over the next 1-3 months.
• Use a call spread in SUN for Q2 exposure rather than outright stock if you want participation in the breakout but want to cap premium at risk; best when implied vol remains subdued and momentum is still intact.
• Pair trade: long SUN / short SPX as a relative-strength expression for the next 6-12 months; thesis only works if energy leadership broadens and the relative uptrend keeps making higher lows.
• If already long, trail risk aggressively under the 10-week moving average; a close below that level would suggest momentum funds may start de-risking, making the next 5-8% drawdown a realistic downside case.
• Monitor crude as the catalyst governor: if oil loses directional support for more than 2 weeks, reduce exposure by one-third to one-half, because SUN’s upside is more dependent on commodity beta than on idiosyncratic re-rating.