OPEC+ is set to consider a further oil output hike at its upcoming Sunday meeting, aiming to regain market share. Such a move would unwind a second layer of output cuts totaling 1.65 million barrels per day, or 1.6% of global demand, more than a year ahead of schedule. However, sources also indicate a possibility that the group could pause increases for October, with no final decision yet, introducing uncertainty into the near-term oil supply outlook.
OPEC+ is approaching its upcoming meeting with two divergent potential outcomes, creating significant near-term uncertainty for oil markets. Sources indicate the group will consider a further production hike aimed at regaining market share, which would begin to unwind an additional 1.65 million barrels per day of cuts—equivalent to 1.6% of global demand—more than a year ahead of schedule. This potential acceleration of supply restoration points to a bearish risk for crude prices. Conversely, other sources suggest a pause on output increases is also on the table for October, which would signal continued supply discipline. With no final decision made, as confirmed by an OPEC+ source, the market faces a binary event risk dependent on the cartel's final communique on Sunday, a situation reflected in the neutral sentiment and high market impact score.
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