Piper Sandler lowers Oscar Health stock price target to $13 on mixed results

Piper Sandler has reduced its price target for Oscar Health Inc (OSCR) to $13.00 from $14.00, while maintaining a Neutral rating, following the health insurer's mixed Q2 2025 results and revised full-year guidance. Despite reporting 48% revenue growth over the last twelve months, OSCR missed analyst expectations with an EPS of -$0.89 and revenue of $2.86 billion. Piper Sandler expressed "significant questions" regarding the company's affirmed 2025 guidance and its projected return to profitability in calendar year 2026, basing its lowered target on reduced estimated CY2027 adjusted EPS, and plans to seek further clarity from management.

Analysis

Piper Sandler has reduced its price target on Oscar Health (OSCR) to $13.00 from $14.00 while maintaining a Neutral rating, introducing a note of caution following the company's recent performance. The revision was prompted by Oscar's second-quarter 2025 results, which missed analyst consensus with an EPS of -$0.89 against a -$0.84 estimate and revenue of $2.86 billion versus a $2.92 billion forecast. This earnings-driven downgrade is specifically tied to a lower calendar year 2027 adjusted EPS estimate, now at $0.92 from a prior $1.06. Despite a strong historical top-line growth of 48% over the last twelve months, Piper Sandler expressed "significant questions" regarding the achievability of the company's affirmed 2025 guidance and its projected return to profitability in 2026. Notably, the new price target is significantly below the stock's current trading price of $14.93, suggesting the analyst sees potential for a price correction or a lack of near-term catalysts to support the current valuation.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the price target of $13.00 is substantially below the current market price, investors should be cautious about the stock's present valuation, as it implies potential downside risk if the company's performance continues to lag expectations.
• Closely monitor for future communications from Oscar Health's management, as their ability to provide clarity on the assumptions backing the 2025 guidance and 2026 profitability path is now a critical factor for the investment case.
• Investors should balance the company's impressive 48% trailing revenue growth against the recent double miss on earnings and revenue, recognizing that a position in OSCR now carries heightened execution risk until management can credibly address analyst concerns.