Slew of new major natural resource projects will be up and running by next year, Hodgson predicts

Canada’s Major Projects Office has referred 15 resource and infrastructure projects with potential investment of $126 billion, while Energy Minister Tim Hodgson said 5 to 10 new major projects could reach final investment decision or break ground by spring 2027. The government is positioning faster approvals and more electricity/nuclear planning as a response to U.S. tariffs and trade-war pressure. Enbridge also received Ottawa approval to proceed with a $4 billion B.C. natural gas pipeline expansion, underscoring the pro-development policy shift.

Analysis

The market is likely underpricing how much this is a policy signal for capital formation, not just a headline on one pipeline. The real second-order benefit is to regulated infrastructure owners and balance-sheet-heavy contractors that can now expect a lower approval-friction regime across multiple asset classes, which should compress project risk premia and improve the odds of FID on previously delayed pipes, power, and export-oriented resource projects.

For ENB, the upside is less about this single expansion and more about optionality: once one major hydrocarbon infrastructure project clears, the valuation rerates on the probability of a faster cadence of brownfield approvals and a larger addressable pipeline of sanctioned capital spend. The bigger beneficiary may be Canadian oil and gas producers with trapped volumes and regional basis exposure, since incremental takeaway capacity can tighten the differential and lift realized prices over the next 6-18 months.

The contrarian risk is that political enthusiasm outruns execution. Canada still faces the classic failure mode of “announcements before shovels,” so the trade should distinguish between projects that are truly FID-ready and those that need provincial coordination, indigenous consultation, or utility interconnection work that can still stretch for quarters. If the U.S. trade negotiation de-escalates materially, the urgency premium behind this industrial policy push could fade, but if it does not, the government is likely to lean harder into approvals, which is supportive for the sector over a multi-quarter horizon.

The cleanest market expression is to own the beneficiaries of policy throughput rather than the policy headline itself. The best risk/reward is in names with existing asset footprints and immediate monetization of regulatory success, while avoiding pure-optionality developers that need years of permitting and commodity strength to matter. Electricity and nuclear are the next catalyst because they broaden the trade from hydrocarbons into power scarcity, which is where AI and industrial load growth can create a more durable rerating.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long ENB on pullbacks over the next 1-3 weeks; target a 6-10% move as the market prices in a higher probability of multi-project approval flow, with downside limited unless execution slips or policy momentum stalls.
• Pair trade: long ENB / short a Canadian midstream name more exposed to project-delay risk, to isolate the valuation benefit of being perceived as a first-mover beneficiary of the faster-permitting regime.
• Long a basket of Canadian producers with takeaway or basis sensitivity for a 3-6 month horizon; the thesis is that faster infrastructure approvals can improve realized pricing before headline production volumes change.
• Buy call spreads on Canadian power/utilities and nuclear-adjacent names for 6-12 months; the policy narrative points to a forthcoming electricity strategy, and the convexity is cheap if power grid investment becomes the next priority.
• Avoid chasing pure greenfield resource developers here; wait for confirmed FID or construction starts, since the market will likely overestimate the probability of conversion from referred projects to cash-flowing assets.