Q2: Organic growth, lower leverage and continued efficiency improvements

Second-quarter net sales were flat year over year at SEK 5,481 million versus SEK 5,480 million, while organic sales growth was 4.4%, led by LCP growth of 10.4%. Gross margin compressed to 13.2% from 13.9%, and adjusted EBITA fell to SEK 103 million from SEK 110 million, though EBIT improved sharply to SEK 42 million from a loss of SEK 2,503 million due to fewer items affecting comparability. Performance was mixed overall, with stable top-line trends offset by margin pressure.

Analysis

The key signal is not the flat top line, but the mix shift: higher-growth LCP is offsetting a still-weak SMB franchise, which implies the company is slowly becoming less dependent on the more cyclical, lower-quality end of the portfolio. That is constructive for margin stability over the next 2-4 quarters, but the current gross margin compression suggests the mix benefit is not yet strong enough to offset pricing pressure, promo intensity, or integration/transition costs from the reshaped consumer exposure.

Second-order, this creates a winner/loser dynamic in the customer base rather than just the P&L. If SMB remains negative ex-discontinuation, smaller retailers and more discretionary channels are still under demand stress, which can spill into inventory caution across suppliers and distributors. Competitors with cleaner exposure to enterprise and subscription-like demand should be better insulated, while peers with lingering consumer exposure may face the same margin squeeze as they chase volume.

The main catalyst path is execution, not macro. If LCP can sustain double-digit growth for another 1-2 quarters while SMB stabilizes, the market can start underwriting a higher-quality revenue mix and a step-up in EBITA leverage; if not, this becomes a low-growth, low-margin story where any revenue miss quickly overwhelms operating leverage. The biggest tail risk is that the gross margin decline is the first visible sign of a more persistent pricing reset, which would cap earnings recovery for the next several reporting periods.

Consensus is likely to read this as a modestly clean beat after the restructuring noise clears, but that may be too generous. The better framing is that the business is still in transition, and the headline stability masks fragility underneath; investors may be underestimating how much of the near-term equity value now depends on the cadence of mix improvement rather than simple sales growth.

Key Decisions for Investors

• If liquid, lean long into weakness only after management shows one more quarter of LCP growth above ~8% and SMB declines narrowing; otherwise treat this as a show-me story rather than a re-rating candidate.
• Use a pair trade: long higher-quality commercial/software-enabled peers with recurring demand, short consumer-exposed or distribution-heavy names that still rely on discretionary SMB spend; hold 1-3 months around earnings revisions.
• For event-driven accounts, buy short-dated downside protection against a gross-margin disappointment next quarter; the risk/reward favors hedging because a 50-100 bps margin miss can dominate a small revenue beat.
• If the stock is already pricing in restructuring success, consider trimming on strength into the next print unless there is evidence of sustained operating leverage; upside is incremental, while downside from mix slippage is immediate.