Oil prices were largely unchanged as investors weighed conflicting signals from geopolitical developments and demand indicators. A potential Gaza ceasefire could ease Middle East supply risk premiums, though analysts remain cautious about its immediate impact given OPEC+'s recent conservative output hike. Conversely, stalled Ukraine peace talks suggest continued sanctions on Russia, maintaining an elevated geopolitical risk premium. While U.S. petroleum product demand recently surged, JP Morgan analysts noted a softer start to global oil demand in October, coupled with a slowdown in inventory building, presenting a complex and mixed outlook for crude markets.
SINGAPORE, Oct 9 (Reuters) - Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as investors weighed a ceasefire deal in Gaza that could ease geopolitical tensions in the Middle East against stalled peace talks in Ukraine that could sustain sanctions on Russia and curb its exports. Brent crude futures rose 2 cents to $66.27 a barrel by 0629 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1 cent to $62.54. The Reuters Power Up newsletter provides everything you need to know about the global energy industry. Sign up here. U.S. President Donald Trump said that had reached a long-sought deal for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release under a plan for ending the two-year-old war in the Palestinian enclave. Advertisement · Scroll to continue Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he would convene his government to approve the ceasefire agreement. The signing of the agreement is expected to take place at noon Israel time (0900 GMT) on Thursday. "The devil is always in the details, and I would avoid speculating right now due to the many false starts that we have witnessed in the past," Rystad Energy's chief economist Claudio Galimberti said in a note. The war in Gaza has supported oil prices as investors have weighed the potential risk to global supply if the fighting developed into a wider regional conflict. Michael McCarthy, CEO of investor platform Moomoo Australia and New Zealand, said the Gaza ceasefire is unlikely to change oil supply in the Middle East as OPEC+ has not hit its increased production targets. Advertisement · Scroll to continue The group, made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, agreed on Sunday to a November output hike that was smaller than market expectations, easing oversupply concerns. Prices had gained around 1% on Wednesday to reach a one-week high after investors viewed stalled progress on a Ukraine peace deal as a sign that sanctions against Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter, will continue for some time. "As long as the war in Ukraine continues, the geopolitical risk premium is destined to remain elevated, as Russia’s oil production at risk remains high," Rystad's Galimberti said. Meanwhile, total weekly U.S. petroleum products supplied, a proxy for U.S. oil consumption, rose last week to 21.990 million barrels per day, the most since December 2022, according to a report from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. JP Morgan analysts said global oil demand began on a softer note in October as numerous consumption indicators, including container arrivals at the Port of Los Angeles, truck toll mileage in Germany and container throughput in China, pointed to a moderation in activity. Global oil demand averaged 105.9 million bpd in the first seven days of October, up 300,000 bpd from last year's level though 90,000 bpd lower than JP Morgan's estimates, its analysts said in a client note. The pace of global crude and products inventory building has also slowed, expanding by 8 million barrels last week, the slowest increase in the past five weeks, they said. Reporting by Florence Tan in Singapore and Georgina McCartney in Houston; Editing by Christopher Cushing anda Kim Coghill Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Oil prices remained largely flat, with Brent crude up 2 cents to $66.27 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude down 1 cent to $62.54, as markets assimilated a mix of conflicting geopolitical and demand signals. A potential Gaza ceasefire agreement, expected to be signed today, offers a prospect of easing Middle East tensions, which had previously supported oil prices due to supply risk premiums. However, Rystad Energy's chief economist Claudio Galimberti cautioned against premature speculation, citing past "false starts." Simultaneously, stalled peace talks in Ukraine indicate the likely continuation of sanctions against Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter, as noted by Galimberti, keeping the geopolitical risk premium elevated. Moomoo Australia and New Zealand CEO Michael McCarthy also suggested the Gaza ceasefire is unlikely to immediately impact Middle East oil supply, especially given OPEC+'s recent agreement for a smaller-than-expected November output hike. On the demand side, U.S. petroleum product consumption, a key proxy, surged last week to 21.990 million barrels per day, marking its highest level since December 2022. Conversely, JP Morgan analysts observed a moderation in global oil demand at the start of October, with indicators like container arrivals and truck toll mileage signaling a softer trend, leading to global demand averaging 90,000 bpd lower than their estimates. Furthermore, the pace of global crude and product inventory building slowed significantly, expanding by only 8 million barrels last week, the slowest increase in five weeks.
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