Form 144 SERES THERAPEUTICS For: 17 March

This is a general risk disclosure stating trading financial instruments and cryptocurrencies carries high risk, including loss of some or all invested capital, and that trading on margin increases those risks. It warns crypto prices are extremely volatile and may be affected by financial, regulatory or political events, and notes Fusion Media's data may not be real-time or accurate and disclaims liability and unauthorized use.

Analysis

Regulatory tightening risk is now the dominant marginal driver for crypto flows — not technology cycles. Expect a multi-stage rotation: immediate liquidity withdrawal from unregulated venues and on‑chain rails (days–weeks), followed by a secular reallocation of custody and settlement to regulated entities (6–24 months). That rotation will widen the spot-futures basis intermittently as retail liquidity retreats and institutional counterparties rely more on cleared venues.

Winners are likely to be regulated custodians, legacy banks that add custody rails, and regulated derivatives/clearing venues; losers will be retail-first exchanges, unregulated DeFi lending pools, and any entity that competes on lax KYC or low-cost off‑ramps. Second-order: market makers facing higher compliance costs will reduce two‑sided quotes, steepening option skews and increasing realized volatility — a structural tailwind for volatility products and short-dated option sellers who charge richer premia.

Catalysts and risks are asymmetric by horizon. In the next days–weeks, enforcement announcements or subpoenas will spike realized vol and create cheap entry points for directional hedges; over 6–24 months, legislative outcomes and final rulemakings will determine market structure winners. Reversal scenarios include favorable court rulings or broad regulatory clarity that rapidly restores retail on‑ramps — such outcomes would compress premiums and punish custody/derivatives longs quickly.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Pair: Long BK (The Bank of New York Mellon) vs short COIN (Coinbase) — 9–18 month horizon. Size as a market‑neutral pair (1:1 dollar exposure) to capture expected reallocation to regulated custody; target 25–35% relative outperformance. Stop-loss: unwind if BK/COIN ratio moves 15% against the position.
• Long CME (CME Group) — 6–12 months. Buy outright to capture higher cleared derivatives volumes and wider spreads; target +15–25% upside if institutional flow accelerates. Risk: slower-than-expected migration or fee compression — cap position to <3% of risk budget.
• Volatility play: Buy 1‑month BITO (ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF) straddle ahead of major regulatory headlines/SEC rulings. Objective: capture a 30–100% move in either direction; max loss = premium paid. Use this tactically around scheduled events only.
• Hedge/miner short: Buy 3‑month MARA (Marathon Digital) 20% OTM puts or small outright short of MARA/RIOT — hedge against on/off‑ramp disruptions and flow shocks. Target asymmetric payoff (40%+ downside under stress); limit premium/short exposure to <2% of portfolio to control idiosyncratic miner volatility.