NFL betting, odds, lines: Betting trends to know for Week 15's biggest games

Week 15 betting hinges on five consequential matchups with several actionable trends: Buffalo (road favorite) visits New England (Patriots -105 on the moneyline) where New England’s 10-game run and 8-2 ATS stretch — including success as an underdog against Buffalo — contrast with the Bills’ recent ATS struggles and Josh Allen’s dual-threat upside; Chargers at Chiefs (Chiefs -4.5) highlights Kansas City’s rare 1-4 skid, Patrick Mahomes’ turnover spike and an under trend (under 7-1 in KC’s last eight), while Los Angeles’ defense is forcing turnovers. Green Bay (-2.5 at Denver) and Detroit (+200 at Rams -250) feature tight lines tied to recent streaks and scoring splits (Rams’ Matthew Stafford leading the league in TDs), and the marquee mismatch is Indianapolis at Seattle (Seahawks -13.5) where Indy’s season-ending QB injuries forced Philip Rivers out of retirement and materially worsened their outlook versus a Seahawks side that is 10-3 ATS and has covered seven straight. These developments create divergent live-market opportunities around turnovers, totals and large spreads, particularly in games with quarterback uncertainty and recent ATS momentum.

Analysis

Buffalo at New England is framed by New England’s 10-game winning streak and strong against-the-spread form (8-2 ATS during the streak, 4-1 ATS at home and 2-0 ATS as an underdog), while Buffalo has slipped to 4-8 ATS since starting 2-0 ATS. Drake Maye has thrown 259–294 yards in each of his last six games but BetMGM projects only 232.5 passing yards; Josh Allen has produced multiple passing TDs eight times and multi-dimension scores six times, and Buffalo has hit the under in five of six road games with no road game exceeding 49 total points in 2025.

Kansas City’s 1-4 slide and Patrick Mahomes’ recent turnover spike (picked off in five of six games; three INTs last week) contrast with the Chargers’ defense that has 15 interceptions; the under is 7-1 in Kansas City’s last eight games and 4-1 in recent Chiefs-Chargers meetings. Green Bay (four-game win streak, 7-2 since Week 4 including 4-0 on the road) meets a Denver side 3-1 SU/ATS as an underdog in 2025 and 5-8 ATS overall, with mixed total signals (Packers road unders vs. recent Denver overs).

Detroit’s offense is hot (44-30 win, Lions win 15 straight after a defeat but alternate SU results) against a Rams team with Matthew Stafford leading the league at 35 TDs and strong home unders (five straight home unders), making a 55.5 total a conflicted market. Indianapolis lost starting QB Daniel Jones to a season-ending Achilles injury, then backup Riley Leonard to a knee sprain, prompting Philip Rivers’ unretirement; Seattle is 10-3 ATS and is laying at least 13 points for the third time in four weeks, creating a sizable mismatch and skewed market pricing.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Lean to New England on the spread or moneyline given the 10-game streak, 4-1 home ATS form and Buffalo’s 4-8 ATS slide, but size positions modestly because Buffalo’s offensive ceiling (Allen) still creates upside
• Fade Kansas City spreads or prioritize the under in Chiefs-Chargers matchups given Mahomes’ recent interception trend and the under 7-1 in KC’s last eight games; consider player props tied to turnovers
• Treat Seattle -13.5 as a high-probability cover given Indianapolis’ QB injuries and Rivers’ emergency signing, but limit stake size to manage tail-risk from atypical blowout dynamics
• Target Rams-Lions player props and the under on the game total (55.5) rather than large spread plays: Stafford’s 35 TDs make his 3+ TD prop (+110) a viable sized play while the Rams’ home games have trended low