Here's what's taking the S&P 500 so long to make a new all-time high

Lawrence G. McMillan anticipates the S&P 500 will achieve a new all-time high, currently at 6,150, driven by a new 'spike peak' VIX buy signal confirmed June 24 and cumulative volume breadth reaching a fresh record. While some internal indicators, including equity-only put-call ratios and market breadth, still show sell signals, they are weakening or poised for bullish reversal. The construct of volatility derivatives also remains broadly bullish, reinforcing a positive market outlook despite the S&P 500's modest recent ascent.

Analysis

The S&P 500 index is projected to reach a new all-time high of 6,150, though the ascent is characterized by a modest pace due to conflicting technical signals. The primary bullish thesis is supported by several key indicators: a new VIX 'spike peak' buy signal confirmed on June 24, an ongoing VIX trend buy signal from late May, and a new all-time high in Cumulative Volume Breadth (CVB), which is a historically strong leading indicator for the index. Furthermore, the bullish construct of volatility derivatives, evidenced by upward-sloping VIX futures and a significant premium to the spot VIX, reinforces positive market sentiment. However, this optimism is tempered by persistent, albeit weakening, sell signals from internal indicators. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal remains in effect, and both equity-only put-call ratios and market breadth oscillators continue to flash bearish warnings, with the latter failing to reverse due to poor breadth on June 25. This divergence between strong underlying momentum and weak internal health explains the market's gradual grind higher rather than a sharp breakout. The analysis also notes specific stock-level signals, such as a new sell signal for Hasbro (HAS) based on its weighted put-call ratio, demonstrating that opportunities may run counter to the broad market trend.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the multiple bullish VIX signals and record Cumulative Volume Breadth, investors could consider maintaining a long bias on the S&P 500, anticipating an eventual test of the 6,150 all-time high.
• The divergence between strong primary trend indicators and weak internal metrics like market breadth suggests investors should watch for confirmation, as a continued lack of broad participation could undermine the rally's sustainability.