Harley-Davidson (HOG) Reports Q2 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say

Harley-Davidson (HOG) reported a significant Q2 2025 underperformance, with revenue of $1.05 billion missing consensus by 7.04% and declining 22.6% year-over-year, alongside EPS of $0.88 missing by 11.11% and down 46% from the prior year. This financial miss was compounded by key operational metrics, such as worldwide retail sales and motorcycle shipments, also falling below analyst estimates. The results contributed to an 8.4% stock decline over the past month, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain, and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) indicating a bearish near-term outlook.

Analysis

Harley-Davidson's second-quarter 2025 results reveal a significant deterioration in fundamental performance, marked by substantial misses on both top and bottom lines. Revenue of $1.05 billion represented a 22.6% year-over-year decline and fell 7.04% short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Similarly, EPS of $0.88 not only missed consensus by 11.11% but was also drastically lower than the $1.63 reported in the prior-year quarter. The weakness appears systemic, as key operational metrics that drive performance also underwhelmed. Worldwide motorcycle shipments of 35,837 and retail sales of 42,254 both failed to meet analyst expectations. The core Motorcycles segment revenue was particularly weak, contracting 27.2% year-over-year, while the Financial Services and LiveWire segments also posted revenue declines and missed forecasts. Minor bright spots, such as a slight beat in EMEA retail sales and an 8.4% YoY gain in Licensing revenue, were insufficient to offset the broad-based negative trends. This poor operational execution is reflected in the stock's -8.4% return over the past month, a stark underperformance against the S&P 500's +3.4% gain, and is further reinforced by a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), signaling a bearish near-term outlook.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the significant, broad-based miss on revenue, EPS, and critical operational metrics like sales and shipments, investors should consider reducing exposure or re-evaluating long positions in HOG.
• The sharp 27.2% year-over-year decline in core motorcycle revenue indicates a severe demand issue; a cautious or bearish stance is warranted until there is clear evidence of stabilization in retail sales and shipments.
• The stock's recent underperformance against the broader market, combined with a formal 'Sell' rating from Zacks, suggests that near-term downside risk remains elevated, making it a potential candidate for shorting or underweighting in a portfolio.
• Monitor performance in the Asia Pacific region, which saw a notable miss in retail sales, as this may signal deepening challenges in key growth markets for the company.