Earnings Preview: General Motors (GM) Q2 Earnings Expected to Decline

General Motors (GM) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline for its Q2 2025 earnings, with consensus estimates at $2.44 EPS (-20.3% YoY) and $45.34 billion in revenue (-5.5% YoY). Despite a recent minor uptick in consensus EPS estimates, the company's negative Zacks Earnings ESP of -4.05% combined with a Zacks Rank of #3 indicates a low probability of an earnings beat, potentially impacting its near-term stock price, even though GM has surpassed EPS estimates in the prior four quarters.

Analysis

General Motors (GM) is projected to report a significant year-over-year contraction for its second quarter ending in June 2025, with consensus estimates pointing to a 20.3% decline in earnings per share to $2.44 and a 5.5% drop in revenue to $45.34 billion. While the company has a strong track record of surpassing EPS estimates for the last four consecutive quarters, current predictive indicators suggest caution. The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) is a negative 4.05%, indicating that the most recent analyst revisions are trending below the broader consensus, a bearish signal for the upcoming report. This is juxtaposed with a minor 0.97% upward revision to the consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days. Combined with a neutral Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), the conflicting data makes it difficult to conclusively forecast an earnings beat, creating a scenario of heightened uncertainty around the near-term stock reaction to the July 22 release.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should weigh GM's consistent history of earnings beats against the more immediate negative signal from the -4.05% Earnings ESP, which raises the probability of a miss or in-line result.
• Given the consensus forecast for a sharp YoY decline in both earnings and revenue, maintaining a cautious or neutral stance on GM leading into the report may be prudent, as the risk/reward profile for a pre-earnings bet appears unfavorable.
• Focus should be placed on management's forward guidance during the earnings call, as any revision to the full-year outlook will likely be a more significant driver of the stock's performance than the headline Q2 numbers themselves.