Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures jump as court blocks Trump tariffs, Nvidia earnings impress

US stock futures rose following a US trade court ruling against some of President Trump's tariffs and Nvidia's (NVDA) earnings report, which, despite warnings about chip curbs and a projected $8 billion sales loss, beat revenue expectations and spurred after-hours trading gains. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang criticized US chip restrictions for fostering competition in China, while investors are also anticipating earnings reports from Best Buy (BBY) and Costco (COST) and upcoming economic data, including jobless claims and GDP revisions.

Analysis

US stock futures exhibited upward momentum, with Dow Jones (YM=F) futures rising 1.0%, S&P 500 (ES=F) futures up 1.6%, and Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) futures also gaining 1.6%, buoyed by two key developments. Firstly, a US Court of International Trade panel blocked certain Trump administration tariffs, deeming them illegal, though this decision is subject to appeal. Secondly, Nvidia (NVDA) delivered a mixed earnings report that nonetheless impressed Wall Street; the company beat revenue expectations but fell short on adjusted earnings per share (EPS) due to US government restrictions on H20 chip sales to China. Nvidia also issued a significant warning, anticipating an $8 billion loss in sales next quarter stemming from these chip curbs. Despite these headwinds and CEO Jensen Huang's critique that US chip restrictions are inadvertently fostering Chinese innovation and potentially weakening America's AI market standing, NVDA shares experienced a jump in after-hours trading. This reaction has bolstered optimism that major technology firms can withstand prevailing trade policy challenges. Market participants are now anticipating earnings from retailers Best Buy (BBY) and Costco (COST), who are in a precarious position regarding trade tariffs, and forthcoming economic data including weekly jobless claims and a revision of Q1 2025 US GDP, which initially indicated an economic contraction.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor potential appeals to the US trade court's ruling on tariffs, as sustained blockage could alleviate trade pressures and positively impact equities sensitive to import duties.
• For Nvidia (NVDA), investors should weigh its demonstrated revenue resilience and positive market reception against the substantial $8 billion projected sales impact from China restrictions and CEO concerns over long-term competitive positioning.
• Closely observe upcoming earnings from retailers like Best Buy (BBY) and Costco (COST), and economic indicators such as revised GDP and jobless claims, to gauge consumer health and the broader economic effects of trade policies.
• Consider the current moderately positive market sentiment (overall score 0.65), partly driven by Nvidia's performance (ticker sentiment 0.7), but remain vigilant about sector-specific risks, such as those impacting retailers like Walmart (ticker sentiment -0.4) due to trade tariffs.