Deutsche Bank raises Banco Comercial Portugues stock price target

Deutsche Bank raised its price target for Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP:LI) to €0.73 from €0.69, reiterating a Buy rating, after a strong Q1 2025 driven by better-than-expected net interest income and robust performance in Portugal. Analysts are focusing on BCP's Polish operations, where declining CHF mortgage provisions are boosting confidence, with anticipated earnings improvements expected from 2026. While the outlook is promising, further reassurances regarding future profitability would be beneficial.

Analysis

Deutsche Bank analysts have revised their price target for Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP:LI) upwards to €0.73 from €0.69, while reaffirming a Buy rating. This adjustment is predicated on the bank's robust first-quarter 2025 performance, which saw net interest income (NII) surpass expectations and overall earnings exceed the €800 million threshold, largely driven by its Portuguese operations. Investor attention is increasingly turning to BCP's Polish subsidiary, where a significant reduction in provisions for CHF-denominated mortgages is fostering confidence in future profitability enhancements. While the current earnings trajectory is positive, with the Portuguese segment expected to remain a key contributor, the analysts indicate that more substantial earnings improvements are anticipated from 2026 onwards. Despite the promising outlook, which is reflected in a strongly positive sentiment score of 0.75, further reassurances regarding the bank's long-term profitability would be welcomed. The price target increase signals Deutsche Bank's belief in BCP's capacity to navigate prevailing challenges and leverage growth opportunities within its core markets.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors may consider the maintained Buy rating and increased price target as a positive signal for Banco Comercial Portugues, reflecting analyst confidence in its near-term performance and strategic direction.
• Monitor developments in BCP's Polish operations, specifically the trend in CHF mortgage provisions, as this is a key factor influencing future profitability expectations.
• Evaluate BCP's ability to provide further clarity and reassurances on its earnings outlook, particularly for the period from 2026 onwards, to substantiate the anticipated improvements.
• Consider the strong Q1 2025 NII performance and sustained strength in Portuguese operations as key indicators of the bank's current financial health.