Morning Bid: US jobs test looms after Nvidia relief

Nvidia’s strong Q3, led by its Blackwell product, ignited a risk-on rally—boosting Japan’s Nikkei, South Korea and Taiwan markets and lifting AI supply-chain names—while reports that the U.S. may delay semiconductor tariffs and that Japan is preparing its largest post-Covid stimulus added momentum; the latter news coincided with a sharp sell-off in JGBs, record-high yields and a weaker yen (¥157.48). The U.S. September jobs report, long delayed by the shutdown and due this week, leaves the Fed heading into its Dec. 10 meeting with key data missing, and fed funds futures now price a 33% chance of a 25bp cut next month (down from 50%), underscoring policy uncertainty. In short, earnings, tariff/stimulus headlines and scant U.S. macro data are driving market direction, supporting tech-led gains but leaving the medium-term rate outlook unclear.

Analysis

Nvidia reported a stronger-than-expected Q3 led by its Blackwell product, triggering a relief rally in equities and lifting AI supply-chain names; the article cites broad gains across Japan's Nikkei 225, South Korea and Taiwan as tech manufacturers rallied. The piece highlights specific winners referenced by Investing.com's commentary (including Super Micro Computer and AppLovin) and frames Nvidia's beat as a catalyst for risk-on flows in tech.

Market-moving policy and macro headlines augmented the move: a Reuters report that the U.S. may delay planned semiconductor tariffs and reports that Japan is preparing its largest post-Covid stimulus provided additional upside, while Japanese government bonds sold off with yields surging to record highs. The yen weakened 0.1% to a ten-month low of 157.48 versus the dollar and a dollar-strength gauge approached a two-week high, reinforcing FX and yield tensions.

U.S. macro uncertainty is elevated because the six-week government shutdown delayed the September jobs report and leaves the Fed short of data ahead of its Dec. 10 meeting; the next jobs release was pushed to Dec. 16. Fed funds futures trimmed odds of a 25-basis-point cut to 33% from 50% the prior day, underscoring that policy path revisions and data releases remain the key near-term risk to the rally.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider a selective overweight in NVDA and high-quality AI supply-chain names (eg, SMCI, APP) to participate in momentum from the Blackwell-driven beat, but size positions modestly to limit earnings-driven volatility
• Monitor the delayed September U.S. jobs report and Fed communications closely; if incoming data sustains lower odds of easing, reduce duration exposure and increase hedges against higher-for-longer rates
• Track developments on semiconductor tariff timing and Japan's stimulus; a tariff delay and fiscal support would favor semiconductor exporters and Japanese cyclicals, but hedge FX exposure given yen weakness around JPY157.48