Invitation to press and analyst conference

Holmen will publish its January–March 2026 interim report at 07:30 CEST on 28 April and hold a press and analyst conference at 08:30 CEST the same day. CEO Henrik Sjölund and CFO Stefan Loréhn will present in English; the event will be webcast at www.holmen.com/reports and is also accessible via the provided telephone numbers.

Analysis

The upcoming interim release and management Q&A are a high-probability catalyst for intraday-to-week volatility rather than a change in the structural story. Expect a 24–72 hour window where flow and guidance nuance matter more than headline sales — dealers and algos will reprice forward pulp/paperboard realizations and timber harvest cadence; implied move of 15–30% in near-term single-stock vol is realistic based on comparable Nordic forestry releases.

Second-order winners and losers will be driven by commentary on raw-material sourcing and energy exposure. If management signals tighter harvest volumes or higher stumpage costs, local sawmills and integrated peers with lower forest ownership (crowd: STE-A, BILL) will be more exposed to margin erosion than Holmen; conversely, a shift toward higher-margin packaging fibre or stronger energy generation offsets could widen Holmen’s relative EBITDA multiple over 3–12 months.

Key risks: an earnings miss or conservative near-term guidance will trigger a rapid derating within days as liquidity dries and index/ETF rebalances bite; alternatively, overly bullish guidance that isn’t supported by European pulp contract trends could reverse within 2–3 quarters as inventory normalizes. Watch SEK vs EUR moves and Nordic power price direction as 1–6 month catalysts — a 10% SEK move vs EUR materially alters reported SEK EBITDA and investor sentiment.

The contrarian edge is to focus on guidance language around harvested volumes and mix (sawn timber vs pulpwood) rather than headline sales. Markets tend to over-react to pulp price noise; true durable upside comes from structural mix shift to packaging-grade board and higher self-supply of fibre, which compounds free cashflow improvement over 6–18 months rather than showing up cleanly in an interim quarter.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Short-term volatility play: Buy a HOLM-B near-term straddle (7–14 day expiry) entering within 24 hours pre-release to capture the anticipated 15–30% vol spike; plan to take profits or re-evaluate 24–48 hours after the conference. Risk = option premium paid; reward = uncapped if directional move surprises the market.
• Relative-value pair (3–6 month): Long HOLM-B / Short STE-A sized 1:1 by notional to express premium for vertically integrated forest ownership and higher self-supplied fibre. Stop-loss: 15% adverse relative move; target: 25–40% relative outperformance if management signals higher-margin mix or stable harvest volumes.
• Event-driven fundamental (6–12 month): If management emphasizes expansion into packaging fibre or increased energy generation, initiate a long position in BILL (BillerudKorsnäs) sized at 1–2% NAV and sell 3–6 month covered calls to improve entry yield. Rationale: capture secular recyclable-fibre tailwind while monetizing near-term volatility; downside capped by covered-call buffer of collected premium.