Wheat Seeing Some Buying Ahead of Export Sales Release

Wheat futures are rallying across all three major markets on Thursday morning, reversing Wednesday's retreat, with CBOT December 2025 contracts up 5.5 cents and similar gains seen in KCBT and MGEX. This rebound precedes the anticipated USDA Export Sales data, expected to show 300,000-600,000 MT, and comes despite IKAR's updated estimate for Russia's wheat crop increasing by 0.5 MMT to 87.5 MMT.

Analysis

Wheat futures are exhibiting a broad-based rebound on Thursday morning, reversing losses from the previous session across the CBT, KC, and MPLS markets. Near-term CBOT contracts are up 5.5 cents, with similar strength in KC hard red winter wheat, indicating a shift in short-term sentiment. This rally occurs despite a reported decline of 5,686 contracts in preliminary open interest for CBT wheat on Wednesday, which can suggest long liquidation rather than new short selling pressure. Fundamentally, the market is looking ahead to the weekly USDA Export Sales data, with expectations for 300,000 to 600,000 MT of sales. However, this positive momentum is running contrary to a key supply-side update, as Russia's IKAR institute increased its wheat crop estimate by 0.5 MMT to 87.5 MMT, a potentially bearish factor that the market is currently discounting.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor the upcoming USDA Export Sales report, as a figure at the high end of the 300,000-600,000 MT range will likely be necessary to sustain the current price rally.
• The market's disregard for the increased Russian crop forecast of 87.5 MMT presents a risk; this bearish supply-side fundamental could cap upside potential or re-emerge as a dominant pricing factor if demand data disappoints.
• Given the conflicting signals of a technical rebound against bearish supply news, traders might treat this as a short-term, sentiment-driven move and remain cautious about taking on significant new long exposure in instruments like the WEAT ETF until a clearer trend emerges.