Nvidia shares retake AI leadership role. Wall Street is bullish going forward

Nvidia recently surged to new all-time highs, breaking out of a period of investor doubt and consolidation stemming from China export control fears and growth sustainability concerns. This rally is underpinned by a technical 'golden cross' and strong analyst conviction, with expectations for significant future upside driven by the scaling of its Blackwell chip and anticipated robust Q3 revenue guidance. Analysts, including CFRA's Angelo Zino and Deepwater Asset Management's Gene Munster, remain bullish, citing compelling valuation even at current levels and potential for further gains post-earnings.

Analysis

Nvidia (NVDA) has decisively broken out of a prolonged consolidation phase, establishing new all-time highs on three consecutive days last week. This rally marks a significant shift from earlier investor sentiment, which was weighed down by concerns over China export controls and the sustainability of its rapid growth. The current bullish momentum is supported by a technical "golden cross" formation—where the 50-day moving average rises above the 200-day moving average—implying a potential long-term uptrend. Fundamentally, the rally is underpinned by strong analyst conviction centered on the upcoming Blackwell chip architecture. Mizuho anticipates a "substantial spike" post-earnings in late August, fueled by expectations of "notably higher than expected" October revenue guidance as Blackwell volumes begin to scale in July and August. This view is echoed by CFRA, which projects margin expansion and other benefits materializing over the next few quarters. Furthermore, analysts like Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management contend that Nvidia's valuation remains compelling on a price-to-growth basis even at these record highs, dismissing the threat of custom chips from hyperscalers as cost-prohibitive and citing the broader AI buildout as being in its early stages.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should monitor the late August earnings report as a primary catalyst, as market expectations are high for Nvidia to issue October revenue guidance that is 'notably higher than expected' due to the Blackwell ramp.
• Given the consensus view that the Blackwell product cycle is the key driver, focus on any management commentary or industry data regarding its production scaling and initial customer adoption rates through July and August.
• While analysts view the valuation as attractive, the stock is at all-time highs, so investors should consider that a failure to deliver on significant growth and margin expansion expectations could introduce substantial volatility.