Prediction: 2 Popular Stocks Will Crash in 2026 as This Stock Market Bubble Bursts (Hint: Not Palantir)

Shares of Rigetti Computing and D‑Wave Quantum have surged 3,500% and 1,700% since January 2023, yet trade at extreme revenue multiples—roughly 1,025x and 325x sales respectively (vs. Palantir at ~120x)—raising valuation concerns. The piece argues practical, fault‑tolerant quantum computers remain at least a decade away (experts cite needing 10,000–1,000,000 qubits), with market research forecasting quantum computing to grow ~21% annually to about $4 billion by 2030 while AI expands ~36% to $1.8 trillion, underscoring the modest near‑term addressable market. It highlights Rigetti’s vertical integration and multichip roadmap targeting ~1,000 qubits by late 2027 and D‑Wave’s first‑mover advantage with annealers (nearly 5,000 physical qubits) that are useful for optimization but limited versus gate‑based systems. Given the long timelines, limited near‑term market scale and outsized multiples, the author expects a significant correction in quantum stocks, potentially as soon as next year.

Analysis

Shares of Rigetti Computing (RGTI) and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) have surged roughly 3,500% and 1,700% since January 2023, yet trade at extreme revenue multiples of ~1,025x and ~325x sales respectively versus Palantir at ~120x, leading the author to forecast a significant correction potentially as soon as next year. The valuation argument rests on a small near-term addressable market: Grand View Research projects quantum computing revenue to grow ~21% annually to about $4 billion by 2030, while AI spending is forecast to grow ~36% to $1.8 trillion over the same period, implying much larger commercial upside for AI than quantum in the next decade. On technical timelines, experts cited in the article estimate practical, fault-tolerant quantum systems requiring roughly 10,000–1,000,000 qubits are at least a decade away, and Rigetti's roadmap shows only ~1,000 qubits targeted by late 2027—still years from mainstream utility. Company-level dynamics partially justify differentiation: Rigetti emphasizes vertical integration and multichip scaling while D-Wave has commercialized annealers with nearly 5,000 physical qubits and client relationships, but the article concludes those advantages do not justify current multiples given limited near-term revenue growth and high error-rate technical hurdles.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid initiating new long positions in RGTI or QBTS at current valuations and consider reducing exposure where present due to extreme revenue multiples and the high-risk timing of commercial utility
• If already long, implement defensive actions such as position size reductions, stop-losses or targeted hedges (e.g., long-dated puts) ahead of expected volatility or missed technical milestones
• Monitor specific, tangible catalysts before reassessing bullish exposure: revenue growth materially exceeding the ~21% market CAGR, meaningful enterprise contract wins, demonstrable error-correction progress, and Rigetti meeting its late-2027 multichip/1,000-qubit targets
• Consider reallocating incremental capital toward AI-related opportunities cited as having much larger near-term market potential, given the article's forecast of AI being ~450x larger than quantum by 2030