
Shares of Rigetti Computing and D‑Wave Quantum have surged 3,500% and 1,700% since January 2023, yet trade at extreme revenue multiples—roughly 1,025x and 325x sales respectively (vs. Palantir at ~120x)—raising valuation concerns. The piece argues practical, fault‑tolerant quantum computers remain at least a decade away (experts cite needing 10,000–1,000,000 qubits), with market research forecasting quantum computing to grow ~21% annually to about $4 billion by 2030 while AI expands ~36% to $1.8 trillion, underscoring the modest near‑term addressable market. It highlights Rigetti’s vertical integration and multichip roadmap targeting ~1,000 qubits by late 2027 and D‑Wave’s first‑mover advantage with annealers (nearly 5,000 physical qubits) that are useful for optimization but limited versus gate‑based systems. Given the long timelines, limited near‑term market scale and outsized multiples, the author expects a significant correction in quantum stocks, potentially as soon as next year.
Shares of Rigetti Computing (RGTI) and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) have surged roughly 3,500% and 1,700% since January 2023, yet trade at extreme revenue multiples of ~1,025x and ~325x sales respectively versus Palantir at ~120x, leading the author to forecast a significant correction potentially as soon as next year. The valuation argument rests on a small near-term addressable market: Grand View Research projects quantum computing revenue to grow ~21% annually to about $4 billion by 2030, while AI spending is forecast to grow ~36% to $1.8 trillion over the same period, implying much larger commercial upside for AI than quantum in the next decade. On technical timelines, experts cited in the article estimate practical, fault-tolerant quantum systems requiring roughly 10,000–1,000,000 qubits are at least a decade away, and Rigetti's roadmap shows only ~1,000 qubits targeted by late 2027—still years from mainstream utility. Company-level dynamics partially justify differentiation: Rigetti emphasizes vertical integration and multichip scaling while D-Wave has commercialized annealers with nearly 5,000 physical qubits and client relationships, but the article concludes those advantages do not justify current multiples given limited near-term revenue growth and high error-rate technical hurdles.
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