Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Should You Buy?

Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) is expected to report earnings on June 3, 2025, with a consensus estimate of $0.70 per share, a 4.1% year-over-year decline, on revenues of $564.69 million, an 11% increase. Despite the expected earnings decline, the company's positive Earnings ESP of +4.29% and Zacks Rank #3 suggest a likely beat of EPS estimates; however, the company only beat EPS estimates in two of the last four quarters, so investors should also consider other factors.

Analysis

Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) is scheduled to release its earnings for the quarter ended April 2025 on June 3, 2025, with consensus estimates pointing to a dichotomous outcome: a 4.1% year-over-year decline in earnings per share (EPS) to $0.70, alongside an 11% increase in revenues to $564.69 million. While the consensus EPS estimate has been stable over the past 30 days, recent analyst sentiment appears more bullish, evidenced by a Most Accurate Estimate higher than the consensus, yielding a Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) of +4.29%. This positive ESP, combined with OLLI's current Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), suggests a strong likelihood—historically around 70% for such combinations—that the company will surpass the consensus EPS estimate. However, OLLI's performance consistency is mixed, having beaten EPS estimates in only two of the last four quarters, including a minor -0.83% miss in its most recent report where it posted $1.19 EPS against an expected $1.20. The overall moderately positive sentiment (score: 0.6) and specific positive sentiment for OLLI (score: 0.7) align with the potential for an earnings beat, but investors should note that management's commentary on business conditions during the earnings call will be crucial in determining the sustainability of any immediate price reaction and future earnings expectations.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should note the high probability of Ollie's Bargain Outlet exceeding its $0.70 EPS consensus for the quarter ending April 2025, given its +4.29% Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #3, which could offer a short-term trading opportunity.
• Scrutinize management's narrative during the June 3, 2025 earnings call, particularly regarding the divergence between the projected 11% revenue growth and the -4.1% YoY EPS decline, as well as their forward guidance on profitability and underlying business conditions.
• Despite the likelihood of an earnings beat, weigh this against the company's inconsistent surprise history (two beats in the last four quarters) and the fundamental trend of declining year-over-year earnings before making or adjusting investment positions, as an earnings beat alone may not sustain a price increase if other factors disappoint.