Where are the world’s nuclear weapons, and who owns them?

Global nuclear arsenals are estimated at 12,241 warheads by early 2025, with the US and Russia holding 87% across nine nuclear-armed nations. Six non-nuclear states also host foreign warheads, primarily for the US, as a strategic assurance. Experts, including SIPRI, warn of a potential "new qualitative nuclear arms race," as nuclear weapons are increasingly central to security doctrines, reversing a post-Cold War decline. This trend, coupled with growing doubts about traditional nuclear deterrence, signals heightened geopolitical instability and potential for escalating global defense expenditures.

Analysis

The global security landscape is shifting towards a renewed emphasis on nuclear armament, reversing the post-Cold War trend of stockpile reduction. As of early 2025, the global nuclear arsenal is estimated at 12,241 warheads, with Russia and the United States collectively possessing 87% of the total. A key development highlighted by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) is the potential for a "new qualitative nuclear arms race," driven by the perception among the nine nuclear-armed states that these weapons are increasingly vital to their security doctrines. This trend is exacerbated by the erosion of traditional nuclear deterrence theory; recent events suggest that possessing a nuclear arsenal does not preclude conventional attacks, nor does it fully deter outside support for allies in conflict. This dynamic risks creating a feedback loop where defensive enhancements are perceived as threats, prompting adversaries to increase their own nuclear capabilities. Furthermore, the practice of nuclear sharing, with the U.S. stationing approximately 100 warheads in five NATO countries and Russia planning deployments in Belarus, underscores deepening strategic alignments and increases the number of potential geopolitical flashpoints.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the forecast of a new arms race and increasing geopolitical tensions, investors should assess overweighting exposure to the aerospace and defense sectors, as nations are likely to increase spending on modernizing their nuclear arsenals and related defense infrastructure.
• The erosion of traditional nuclear deterrence theory suggests a higher probability of regional conflicts and miscalculation, warranting a portfolio review to hedge against heightened geopolitical risk, particularly in regions with nuclear-armed states.
• Monitor policy shifts and national budget allocations in the U.S., Russia, and China, as these will be leading indicators for the pace and scale of the new arms race, providing insight into long-term investment themes in defense and technology.