BMO Capital raises Aritzia stock price target to C$100 on U.S. growth

BMO Capital has raised its price target for Aritzia (ATZ) to C$100 from C$92, maintaining an Outperform rating, driven by strong August 2025 web traffic data. The firm noted overall traffic growth of 18%, significantly bolstered by a 42% acceleration in U.S. traffic, despite a modest 2% decline in Canadian traffic. BMO remains confident in Aritzia's U.S. growth trajectory, citing strong brand momentum and its 'Everyday Luxury' positioning, even while acknowledging a potential 50-75 basis point headwind from tariff changes.

Analysis

BMO Capital has increased its price target for Aritzia (ATZ) to C$100.00 from C$92.00, reiterating an Outperform rating based on strong digital engagement metrics. The core driver for this revision is robust August 2025 web traffic data, which, despite a slight moderation to 18% overall growth from 20% in July, featured a significant acceleration in the key U.S. market. U.S. traffic growth accelerated to 42% from 38% in the prior month, indicating strong momentum from the fall collection launch, back-to-school demand, and the conclusion of the summer sale. This U.S. strength contrasts with a modest 2% decline in the more mature Canadian market. While acknowledging a potential 50-75 basis point margin headwind from a fluid tariff situation involving the de minimis exemption, BMO Capital posits that Aritzia's brand affinity and 'Everyday Luxury' positioning provide a sufficient buffer to execute on its U.S. expansion strategy.

Key Decisions for Investors

• The accelerating U.S. web traffic growth of 42% serves as a strong leading indicator for continued top-line momentum in Aritzia's primary growth market, supporting a bullish outlook on near-term revenue performance.
• Investors should closely monitor for any definitive policy changes regarding the de minimis tariff exemption, as the identified 50-75 basis point headwind could pressure gross margins if materialized.
• The divergence between accelerating U.S. performance and declining Canadian traffic warrants attention, as sustained weakness in the company's home market could partially offset gains from its U.S. expansion.