Moderna stock rises after FDA approves COVID-19 vaccine for at-risk children

Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) stock increased 4.4% after the U.S. FDA granted full approval for its Spikevax COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 6 months through 11 years at increased risk, upgrading its previous Emergency Use Authorization. This regulatory milestone expands Moderna's market reach to a vulnerable pediatric demographic. Brookline Capital Markets reiterated a Buy rating and $198 price target, projecting global COVID-19 vaccine sales to reach $2.4 billion in 2025 and an estimated $15.6 billion by 2030, underscoring significant long-term revenue potential.

Analysis

Moderna (MRNA) received a significant regulatory catalyst with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's full approval of its Spikevax vaccine for children aged 6 months to 11 years at high risk, an upgrade from its prior Emergency Use Authorization status. This news, which expands the vaccine's market to a vulnerable pediatric group, prompted a 4.4% rise in the company's stock. Reinforcing this positive sentiment, Brookline Capital Markets reiterated a 'Buy' rating and a $198.00 price target. The analyst's forecast projects a substantial long-term growth trajectory for global COVID-19 vaccine sales, from an estimated $2.4 billion in 2025 to $15.6 billion by 2030. While US dose estimates are expected to decline from 14.6 million in 2024 to 10.9 million in 2025, the global sales forecast suggests a robust, enduring market. Moderna's plan to introduce an updated Spikevax vaccine for the 2025-2026 season further indicates its strategy to maintain a recurring revenue stream from its COVID-19 franchise.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the full FDA approval and the analyst's projection of COVID-19 vaccine sales growing to $15.6 billion by 2030, long-term investors may view this as a validation of a durable revenue stream for Moderna.
• Investors should consider the $198.00 price target from Brookline Capital Markets as a key data point, evaluating the potential upside against the current market price and their own risk tolerance.
• It is crucial to monitor upcoming quarterly results to track vaccine sales against the $2.4 billion global estimate for 2025, as achieving this target is a key step in validating the long-term growth thesis.