Camping World at Stephens Conference: Strategic Outlook and Challenges

At the Stephens Annual Investment Conference Camping World laid out a conservative 2026 plan targeting $310 million of adjusted EBITDA and at least $15 million of SG&A savings while reiterating a mid‑cycle EBITDA aspiration of roughly $525 million; management emphasized upside levers of SG&A cuts, accelerating used‑RV growth, and continued dealership M&A, with new RV sales viewed as less controllable. The company said it commands a 13.5% share of North American RV sales (about 25% of new RVs), sells roughly 40% of new units via contract‑manufactured private labels, generates roughly $5,000 of F&I income per vehicle, and benefits from proprietary residual‑value models and a large customer data lake that it expects will drive used acquisition scale and margin improvement. Good Sam (recurring revenue business) was highlighted as a strategic growth/monetization asset (roadside NPS ~78), management expects industry volumes to normalize toward ~400,000 units, sees potential 50–75 bps easing in financing rates next year, and is focused on improving net debt leverage via earnings, revolver paydown and disciplined capital allocation, though OEM pricing pressure and recent industry deflation remain key risks to the outlook.

Analysis

At the Stephens Annual Investment Conference Camping World set a conservative 2026 floor of $310 million adjusted EBITDA and reiterated a mid-cycle EBITDA target of roughly $525 million based on current store count and an industry volume assumption near 400,000 units; management also expects at least $15 million of SG&A savings and cited continued M&A as an upside lever. The company reports a 13.5% share of North American RV sales (about 25% of new units), sells ~40% of new units as contract‑manufactured private labels, and generates roughly $5,000 of finance & insurance income per vehicle, supporting a reported per‑vehicle PVR near 13%.

Management highlights proprietary residual‑value models and a large Snowflake-based customer data lake to scale used‑RV acquisitions; they expect used sales to grow high single digits (7%–8% assumed in guidance) but have seen higher recent momentum, and Good Sam (1.6m members, roadside NPS ~78) remains a recurring‑revenue growth asset. Interest rate dynamics (management expects a 50–75bp easing signal) and in‑housing of dispatch to repair Good Sam margins were emphasized as catalysts.

Primary risks are OEM pricing resistance and industry deflation that make new RV sales less controllable, claims pressure that compressed Good Sam gross margin this year, and macro/interest‑rate outcomes that could slow volume recovery; management is targeting net‑debt improvement via revolver paydown and has >$200 million of owned real estate as balance sheet support. Key near‑term indicators to watch are SG&A execution, used‑unit growth vs. the 7%–8% bridge, F&I per‑vehicle trends, and any confirmation of rate easing or improved OEM pricing.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor confirmation of the $15m SG&A savings and early 2026 operating cadence; if both are delivered and guidance to $310m adj. EBITDA is intact, consider incremental accumulation of CWH shares
• Watch used‑unit volume and proprietary residual metrics closely (management models 7%–8% used growth in guidance but reported stronger recent momentum); sustained outperformance in used sales justifies a tilt toward overweight
• Track Good Sam margin recovery and recurring revenue trends (NPS ~78 and in‑house dispatch execution); a clear inflection in Good Sam gross margins would support multiple expansion and is a buy signal
• Limit position size or hedge if OEM pricing resistance persists or interest rates fail to ease (management expects a 50–75bp unlock); prioritize evidence of net‑debt deleveraging and disciplined M&A before committing to large new exposure