These 2 Auto, Tires and Trucks Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radar

Zacks' Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) tool, which forecasts earnings surprises by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, has historically predicted positive earnings beats 70% of the time when combined with a Zacks Rank #3 or stronger, yielding a 28% average annual return over a decade. The analysis highlights Polaris Inc. (PII), with a Zacks Rank #1 and a +101.82% ESP, and Tesla (TSLA), with a Zacks Rank #3 and a +4.05% ESP, as two auto sector stocks positioned to potentially exceed analyst expectations in their upcoming earnings reports.

Analysis

The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) system, which identifies potential earnings beats by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, has demonstrated historical efficacy. When combined with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) or stronger, this methodology has predicted positive bottom-line surprises 70% of the time, yielding an average annual return of 28% over a ten-year backtest. This highlights the predictive power of recent analyst revisions.

Polaris Inc. (PII) currently holds a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and exhibits a significant Earnings ESP of +101.82%, derived from a Most Accurate Estimate of $0.37 per share against a Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.18. With its earnings release scheduled for October 28, 2025, this strong positive ESP, coupled with its top Zacks Rank, suggests a high probability of exceeding analyst expectations.

Tesla (TSLA), reporting earnings on October 22, 2025, also shows a positive Earnings ESP of +4.05%, with a Most Accurate Estimate of $0.55 per share versus a Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.53. While its Zacks Rank is #3 (Hold), the positive ESP still points to a potential earnings beat, albeit with a lower magnitude than PII.

Both PII and TSLA are within the Auto, Tires and Trucks sector, and their positive ESP figures collectively suggest potential upside surprises within this industry segment. This indicates that recent analyst sentiment for these companies is more optimistic than the broader consensus.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor Polaris Inc. (PII) ahead of its October 28, 2025 earnings report, given its Zacks Rank #1 and substantial +101.82% Earnings ESP, which historically indicates a high probability of a positive surprise.
• Consider the potential for a moderate earnings beat from Tesla (TSLA) in its October 22, 2025 report, as its +4.05% Earnings ESP suggests upside, though its Zacks Rank #3 implies less aggressive outperformance than PII.
• Evaluate the broader Auto, Tires and Trucks sector for similar opportunities, as the positive ESP signals for both PII and TSLA may indicate favorable underlying trends or revised analyst sentiment within the industry.