Information regarding the final subscription day in Nexam Chemical’s ongoing rights issue

Nexam Chemical has launched a rights issue of up to 21,577,544 new shares at SEK 2.40 per share to raise approximately SEK 51.8 million before estimated issue costs of SEK 6.6 million (including ~SEK 3.0m in underwriting compensation). The offer runs 26 January–9 February 2026 (last day to trade subscription rights 4 February), is ~22.1% covered by subscription undertakings and ~77.9% by underwriting commitments (including ~SEK 20.0m bottom and ~SEK 20.4m top underwriting), with key insiders and major shareholders participating; outcome is expected 11 February and registration in week 9, 2026.

Analysis

Market structure: The SEK 51.8m rights issue (SEK2.40/unit) directly benefits underwriters, insiders who underwrote/top‑subscribed, and short‑term liquidity providers; it dilutes passive/uncertain holders and increases free float by up to 21.6m shares. Competitive dynamics across specialty plastics players are unchanged operationally, but balance‑sheet repair can restore pricing power if proceeds fund commercialization — otherwise market share stays static and incumbent customers continue supplier consolidation.

Risk assessment: Immediate risks (days) include share‑price pressure into 4 Feb (last day to trade rights) and execution risk from non‑secured underwriting (no bank guarantees) — worst case: rights underwrite shortfall or foreign‑investment screening delays sales to key investors. Short/medium (weeks–months) hinge on announced use of proceeds and Feb 11 outcome; long term (6–24 months) depends on commercial adoption rates and whether ~SEK6.6m issuance cost (≈12.7% of proceeds) materially reduces runway.

Trade implications: For holders, subscribing pro‑rata preserves ownership and avoids >~15–25% effective dilution risk; trading rights (TR) until 4 Feb are a liquid, time‑limited option to obtain upside cheaply. Options are likely illiquid—use protective puts (if available) or strict 15–20% stop‑loss; avoid large leverage until outcome is announced on 11 Feb and Bolagsverket registration in week 9.

Contrarian angle: The market may under‑price insiders’ top underwriting and full‑pro rata commitments by management (signal of conviction). Conversely, issuance cost and unsecured underwriting are red flags — if management cannot secure guarantee‑backed financing, further dilutive raises within 12 months become a realistic tail; reward materializes only if proceeds are demonstrably allocated to revenue‑generating commercialization within 6–12 months.

Key Decisions for Investors

• If you are an existing shareholder, SUBSCRIBE pro‑rata by 9 Feb to maintain stake: allocate funds equal to SEK2.40 per new share entitlement (avoid >15–25% dilution) and set exposure cap at 1–3% of portfolio for this single holding.
• Non‑holders: BUY subscription rights (TR) on Nasdaq First North up to 0.5–1.0% portfolio only if TR price ≤ SEK0.36 (≤15% of SEK2.40) before 4 Feb — this is cheap optionality to secure shares post‑issue with limited downside.
• Event‑driven tactical: Do not add material long positions >1–3% until Rights Issue outcome is announced (11 Feb) and use‑of‑proceeds disclosure meets one of: (a) ≥50% allocated to commercial scaling/R&D tied to nearest revenue milestones, or (b) secured contracts translating to ≥SEK10m incremental revenue in next 12 months; then build to 2–3% over 2–8 weeks.
• Risk hedge: If maintaining or adding exposure, BUY protective puts (or set hard 15–20% stop) for 1–3 month tenor around the 11 Feb outcome; monitor Swedish FDI screening status and any underwriter shortfalls within 30 days — exit or reduce to zero if underwriters withdraw or screening restricts investor base.