My Top 10 Stock Picks for 2026

Veteran columnist James K. Glassman publishes his 2026 ten-stock pick list after his 2025 selections averaged 5.9% versus the S&P 500's 21.5% (six of ten stocks fell), and explicitly adds mega-cap tech exposure this year. His roster includes Alphabet (GOOGL) as his top AI/large-cap pick, LVMH (LVMUY) as his personal pick, and a mix of turnaround, takeover and growth plays — Exact Sciences (EXAS) flagged as a cheap takeover candidate, Alight (ALIT) noted for turnaround progress and a 5.6% yield, Chubb (CB) highlighted for low P/E and rising profits, XPeng (XPEV) for EV/flying-car growth, Limbach (LMB) and Pool (POOL) for cyclical recovery, and Grupo Supervielle (SUPV) for Argentina exposure — while advising diversified, multi-year holdings.

Analysis

Market structure: The piece signals renewed concentration into large-cap AI/tech (Alphabet) and selective defensive winners (Chubb CB, insurance) while offering event-driven small-cap opportunities (Exact Sciences EXAS, Grupo Supervielle SUPV/ARGT). Winners gain pricing power (insurers raising rates; AI platforms monetizing search/ads); losers are leisure/casino discretionary names (MGM) and weak industrial cyclicals unless turned into Buffett-style franchises (POOL). On cross-assets, a tech-driven risk-on should push 10y yields up ~20–50bp in a bear-bond move, widen credit spreads for small caps and raise implied volatility for single-name options; ARS FX will remain high-volatility, boosting demand for USD and gold as hedges.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include a China regulatory shock (affecting BABA/XPEV) and an adverse FDA ruling or pricing pressure for EXAS; Argentina policy reversal under Milei could wipe >50% of SUPV paper in a swift selloff. Immediate catalysts are Fed/CPI prints and Q4 earnings (days–weeks), M&A rumors and activist moves (Starboard in ALIT) over 3–6 months, and structural AI monetization over 12–36 months. Hidden dependencies: activist ownership, supply-chain exposure for EV/low-altitude tech, and concentration risk in funds holding a handful of AI names.

Trade implications: Implement conviction-long positions in GOOGL (2–3% portfolio via equity or 1x LEAPs, add on 8–10% pullback, target +25–35% in 6–12 months) and CB (1.5–2%, target 15–25% re-rate, stop −12%). Event-driven: small 0.5–1% opportunistic long in EXAS funded by a 1% short of MGM via 3–6 month put spread; overweight tech/AI and insurance, underweight leisure/hospitality. Use options: buy 9–15 month call spreads on EXAS (to limit premium) and buy protective put spreads on LVMUY (3–6 months) to hedge a consumer slowdown.

Contrarian angles: The consensus misses takeover upside and consolidation in unloved niche healthcare/diagnostics (EXAS) and underestimates Argentina’s asymmetric payoff for SUPV/ARGT if Milei executes reforms. The market may be over-discounting Chinese EV regulatory risk—XPeng (XPEV) could re-rate if deliveries continue >+30% YoY—while mega-cap tech concentration risk is underappreciated; historical parallels include 2015–2016 China shocks and 2017–2019 tech rebounds, implying high dispersion ahead and potential mispricings in small caps and event-driven names.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in Alphabet (GOOGL) via cash equity or 1.0x notional 12–15 month LEAP calls; layer in additional 1% on any >8% pullback. Target +25–35% upside by Dec 2026; hard stop if shares fall >20% from entry or if company misses two consecutive revenue beats.
• Initiate a 1.5–2% long position in Chubb (CB) for 6–12 months to capture rate-driven margin expansion; set a stop-loss at −12% and trim 50% at +20% gain. If P/E compresses below peer median or underwriting loss surprises, cut to half position.
• Open a 0.5–1% event-driven long in Exact Sciences (EXAS) funded by a 1% short of MGM (MGM) via a 3–6 month put spread (sell 15% OTM / buy 25% OTM) to monetize takeover/industry consolidation risk while hedging leisure exposure. Close both legs on confirmed M&A chatter or after biotech/FDA milestone (monitor within 90 days).
• Allocate 1–2% to Argentina exposure: 1% in Grupo Supervielle (SUPV) or 2% in ARGT, but size with 30% trailing stop given extreme volatility. Increase exposure only if Milei policy flow passes key fiscal/central-bank milestones within 90 days or ARS stabilizes by >20% appreciation from nadir.
• Before taking a position in XPeng (XPEV), require two confirmations within 60 days: (1) regulator statements clarifying low-altitude commercial rules and (2) quarterly deliveries growth >+30% YoY. If both occur, open a 0.5–1% position and hedge with 3–6 month OTM put protection sized at 25–33% of notional.