Moody's Analytics warns oil at $125 could trigger a global recession

Gaurav Ganguly of Moody's Analytics expects the Middle East conflict to ease and Asia-Pacific growth to hold near 4% this year. He warned that a prolonged conflict could push oil prices higher, and said Brent crude sustained at $125 could trigger a global recession. The message is broadly risk-off for energy-sensitive assets and global growth expectations.

Analysis

Gaurav Ganguly of Moody's Analytics expects the Middle East conflict to ease and Asia-Pacific growth to hold near 4% this year. He warned that a prolonged conflict could push oil prices higher, and said Brent crude sustained at $125 could trigger a global recession. The message is broadly risk-off for energy-sensitive assets and global growth expectations.