Invitation to presentation of Cloetta’s year-end report for 2025

Cloetta will publish its 2025 year-end report on Wednesday 4 February 2026 at 07:30 CET and will host a management presentation and conference call at 10:00 CET led by CEO Katarina Tell and CFO Frans Rydén. The live webcast and presentation materials will be made available on Cloetta’s website, with opportunities for questions via phone, web chat or preregistered email; this is an operational investor-relations notice rather than a release containing financial figures.

Analysis

Market structure: The Cloetta year‑end release is a discrete event that chiefly impacts small‑cap European confectionery names, their suppliers (cocoa/sugar producers) and SEK‑linked credit. A beat on volumes/pricing would lift regional peers (Mondelez MDLZ, Hershey HSY, Nestlé NESN) via sentiment spillover; a miss will disproportionately punish Cloetta equity and tighten credit spreads on similar Swedish food issuers by 50–150bp in stressed scenarios over weeks.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include an EU sugar/health tax announcement, a sudden +20% move in cocoa (ICE: CC) or a product recall; each could swing margins by >200–400bps. Immediate (days) volatility will be driven by headline organic sales vs prior‑quarter trend; short term (weeks) by guidance and FX (USD/SEK moves ±3% amplify reported EBIT); long term (quarters) by cost pass‑through and seasonality (Easter 2026 sales).

Trade implications: For liquid exposure use large-cap peers and commodities: consider event‑sized positions rather than large direct stakes in Cloetta due to low liquidity. If management signals margin recovery, expect 3–6 month rerating of 10–25% in regionals; if they flag cost pressure, cocoa and sugar futures should price in +10–25% within 3 months. Options can express asymmetric views around the call (see decisions).

Contrarian angles: Consensus will underweight restructuring optionality (price/mix initiatives) in a small cap—if management unveils a credible efficiency program, upside is underpriced; conversely, markets may underprice regulatory sugar tax risk. Historical parallels: small European confectioners issuing cautious guidance despite cyclical recovery have later re‑rated 15–30% once cost trajectories stabilized, so be ready to act post‑call.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a conditional 2–3% long position in Cloetta AB equity only if the stock gaps down >5% on the report; set a hard stop at -8% and a target of +20% within 3–6 months (thesis: transient guidance conservatism vs structural margin recovery).
• Buy a 3‑month call spread on Mondelez (MDLZ) sized ~1.5% portfolio: buy 25‑delta call, sell a higher strike to finance; enter if Cloetta reports organic sales growth >+3% YoY or adjusted EBIT margin >8%, target 10–20% upside in 1–3 months.
• If Cloetta flags input‑cost driven margin pressure, initiate a tactical long in cocoa futures (ICE: CC) equal to ~0.5% portfolio exposure or buy 3‑month cocoa call options; take profits if CC rises >25% or if Cloetta guidance is revised down further.
• Monitor three explicit post‑call triggers over 0–30 days: organic sales growth threshold (>+3% YoY), adjusted EBIT margin change (>±200bps), and FX impact (USD/SEK move >±3%); act to scale risk on/off according to these measurable signals.