Soybeans Rally on Chinese Rumors and Record Crush

Soybean futures jumped Monday (nearby up roughly $0.33) with the national cash bean price about $0.335 higher at $10.845/ bu and soymeal and soyoil also firmer, driven by a mix of trade-data revisions and fresh buying. USDA backlog adjustments showed China cancelled 100,000 MT of a previously announced 332,000 MT purchase, yet wire reports said China bought at least 14 cargoes (~840,000 MT) on Monday; weekly export inspections were 1.176 MMT (43.22 mbu), +4.6% w/w but -48.1% y/y, leaving the marketing-year shipments at 10.109 MMT (+42.5% y/y). Domestic demand remains strong—NOPA reported a record October crush of 227.65 mbu (up 13.9% y/y) while soybean oil stocks rose to 1.305 billion lbs (+22.2% y/y)—and Brazil’s safrinha planting lags at 71% vs 80% a year ago, a mix that supports price strength but with higher oil stocks tempering near-term upside.

Analysis

Soybean futures rallied Monday with nearby contracts rising 23 to 32 3/4 cents and the cmdtyView national average cash bean price up 33 1/2 cents at $10.84 1/2; soymeal gained $2.20 to $6.40 and soyoil was 60 to 99 points firmer. USDA backlog adjustments showed China cancelled 100,000 MT of a previously announced 332,000 MT purchase, but wire reports indicated at least 14 cargoes (~840,000 MT) were bought by China on Monday, creating mixed near-term signals that nonetheless supported buying interest. Jan 26 soybeans closed $11.57 1/4, up 32 3/4 cents, reflecting the session’s strength.

Export inspection data for the week of 11/13 showed 1.176 MMT (43.22 mbu) shipped, up 4.6% week/week but down 48.1% year/year, while the marketing-year total stands at 10.109 MMT (371.46 mbu), +42.5% year/year. Domestic demand remains robust: NOPA reported a record October crush of 227.65 mbu (+13.86% y/y, +15.05% vs September), but soybean oil stocks rose to 1.305 billion lbs (+22.16% y/y), adding a moderating supply-side pressure.

Brazil’s safrinha planting is estimated 71% complete versus 80% a year ago, a notable lag that elevates production risk and supports prices if adverse weather follows. The market is therefore driven by a combination of confirmed commercial buying and data-driven volatility (backlog corrections, cancellations and rising oil stocks), implying meaningful two-sided risk for near-term longs.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider a tactical overweight in soybean futures or SOYB to capture near-term momentum given cash and futures gains and record domestic crush, but size positions conservatively and use stops because export-data revisions and oil-stock pressure could quickly reverse gains
• Monitor weekly USDA Export Inspections and any further backlog adjustments closely — confirmed Chinese cargoes are a clear bullish catalyst while cancellations or continued absence of China in shipment tallies are bearish
• Track NOPA crush and soybean oil stocks as the primary demand-supply signals; rising oil inventories (+22.2% y/y) could cap upside and warrant trimming positions on sustained inventory build
• Hedge directional exposure with options or spread strategies to limit downside from data-driven volatility and watch Brazil planting progress (71% vs 80% last year) as the key supply-side event that could widen rallies