Sugar prices settled lower, with London futures reaching a 4.25-year nearest-futures low, primarily due to an outlook for robust global supplies. Major producers like Brazil, India, and Thailand are projecting increased output for the 2025/26 season, driven by favorable weather and expanded acreage, leading to significant global surplus forecasts, including BMI Group's 10.5 MMT projection. This strong supply outlook, including potential higher exports from India, is pressuring prices despite a minor global deficit forecast from the International Sugar Organization.
Sugar prices settled lower, with London ICE white sugar #5 reaching a 4.25-year nearest-futures low, primarily driven by robust global supply forecasts. NY world sugar #11 also declined by 1.90%, reflecting the broader bearish sentiment. BMI Group projects a significant global 2025/26 sugar surplus of 10.5 MMT, while Covrig Analytics forecasts a 4.1 MMT surplus, indicating substantial oversupply. Key producers are contributing to this outlook, with Brazil's Center-South sugar output in H2 September rising +10.8% year-over-year to 3.137 MMT. India's 2025/26 production is projected to climb +19% year-over-year to 34.9 MMT due to strong monsoon rains, potentially leading to 4 MMT in exports. Thailand also anticipates a +5% year-over-year increase in its 2025/26 sugar crop to 10.5 MMT. Despite the International Sugar Organization's forecast of a minor 2025/26 global sugar deficit of -231,000 MT, this is significantly reduced from prior years and overshadowed by USDA's projection of record 2025/26 production at 189.318 MMT. The USDA also anticipates a +7.5% year-over-year increase in global ending stocks to 41.188 MMT. This strong supply-side pressure suggests continued downward pressure on sugar prices.
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moderately negative
Sentiment Score
-0.60
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