Trump tariffs live updates: US, China eye extension of trade truce as EU deal takes shape

President Trump has formally outlined sweeping new tariffs and trade adjustments via executive order, impacting over 70 countries with rates ranging from 15% to 40%. Key actions include a tariff hike to 35% for Canada, a 90-day reprieve for Mexico amid ongoing negotiations, and a 15% import tariff with South Korea, while 50% tariffs on semi-finished copper products caused futures to plunge. These moves, which also saw the end of the de minimis exemption on low-value imports, represent a significant reshaping of the US trade landscape, with most new rates taking effect in seven days.

Analysis

The US administration has enacted a significant and broad-based overhaul of its trade policy through executive orders, creating substantial market uncertainty by implementing new tariff rates on over 70 countries. The actions are highly specific and vary by country, indicating a shift towards a managed, and at times punitive, trade strategy. Key developments include a sharp tariff increase on Canada to 35%, while Mexico, the largest US trading partner, has received a 90-day reprieve to facilitate further negotiations. New trade deals with South Korea and the EU establish a 15% tariff rate, though key issues with the EU remain unresolved. The policy's targeted nature is evident in the commodity markets, where 50% tariffs on semi-finished copper caused futures (HG=F) to plunge, yet exemptions for copper scrap and input materials were specifically granted. Similarly, while Brazil faces 50% tariffs, critical imports like aircraft parts for Embraer (ERJ) were exempted, insulating the company. The elimination of the de minimis exemption for imports under $800 will directly impact e-commerce and logistics. With a seven-day implementation window for most new rates and a critical August 12 deadline for US-China talks, the landscape remains fluid and subject to further politically-driven changes.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the high market impact and volatile tone of these widespread tariff actions, investors should brace for increased cross-asset volatility and closely monitor the US-China trade negotiation deadline of August 12 as a key inflection point.
• The divergent impact on copper futures (HG=F) and Embraer (ERJ) highlights the necessity of scrutinizing policy details, as specific product exemptions and targeted duties are creating distinct winners and losers within broader sectors and countries.
• Reassess exposure to companies with highly integrated US-Canada supply chains due to the punitive 35% tariff, while also monitoring for opportunities in firms that may benefit from the elimination of the de minimis import exemption.