Don't wait if you're planning to upgrade your RAM or SSD, Kingston rep warns — says 'prices will continue to go up,' NAND costs up 246%

Kingston Datacenter SSD business manager Cameron Crandall warned on a podcast that NAND prices—which he says rose 246% since 1Q25 with 70% of that jump in the last 60 days—are likely to keep rising through 2026, and because NAND accounts for roughly 90% of an SSD's bill of materials suppliers will need to pass on higher costs. Crandall urged buyers to upgrade now rather than wait, said Kingston will remain focused on the distribution/consumer channel and help fill gaps left by Crucial's consumer exit, and noted memory firms are pausing fab expansions amid a volatile pricing cycle and the risk that an AI-driven demand surge could reverse, leaving chipmakers exposed to excess inventory; he expects prices to stay elevated for the foreseeable future.

Analysis

Kingston Datacenter SSD business manager Cameron Crandall warned that NAND component costs have surged 246% since 1Q25, with roughly 70% of that spike occurring in the past 60 days, and that NAND comprises about 90% of an SSD's bill of materials; he projects prices will continue to rise through 2026 and urged buyers to upgrade now. He also said memory suppliers will have to pass on higher costs, and Kingston expects to remain active in distribution to fill gaps left by Crucial's pullback. Industry behavior is already responding: memory companies are pausing fab expansion amid the pricing upswing, but Crandall flagged a material downside risk — an AI-driven demand surge could reverse, leaving chipmakers with expensive, unsellable NAND inventory. This view conflicts with other forecasts (Sapphire) that expect DRAM stabilization in six to eight months, creating a binary risk profile where constrained supply supports prices near term while a demand collapse would force rapid markdowns and inventory provisions, implying elevated volatility for memory-exposed equities and downstream OEM margins.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid initiating large, long-term positions in consumer-facing memory OEMs until NAND price direction and inventory data clarify, given the 246% move and AI demand risk
• Consider tactical exposure to suppliers or distributors with demonstrated pricing power and low inventory that can pass through NAND cost increases, while monitoring gross-margin trends in quarterly reports
• Watch NAND/DRAM spot-price trajectories and vendor inventory and capex disclosures as primary leading indicators; use those signals to tighten stops or hedge positions in memory-sensitive names
• For investors exposed to AI/cloud demand drivers, monitor customer capex and procurement cadence from large cloud providers as evidence whether elevated NAND demand is sustainable or at risk of reversal