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Ben Gvir, Smotrich said demanding guarantee that war can resume if Hamas won’t disarm

Geopolitics & WarElections & Domestic Politics
Ben Gvir, Smotrich said demanding guarantee that war can resume if Hamas won’t disarm

Israeli far-right ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich are conditioning their support for the initial phase of a U.S.-backed Gaza peace proposal on explicit guarantees from Prime Minister Netanyahu that Israel can resume military action if Hamas fails to disarm in the subsequent phase. Despite Netanyahu's reported assurances, which are not explicitly part of the U.S. plan, the ministers remain cautious, threatening to withdraw from the government if Hamas retains capabilities, signaling ongoing political fragility within the Israeli coalition and potential for prolonged conflict in the region.

Analysis

Ben Gvir, Smotrich said demanding guarantee that war can resume if Hamas won’t disarm Nava Freiberg is The Times of Israel's deputy diplomatic correspondent. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich have given Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu leeway to facilitate the implementation of the first phase of Washington’s proposal for ending the war in Gaza, while demanding assurances that Israel can continue to fight Hamas, if the terror group does not disarm in the second phase, Channel 12 reports, citing sources familiar with the matter. In the first stage of US President Donald Trump’s proposal, set to be negotiated over in Egypt tomorrow, all the hostages would be released and the IDF would redeploy to positions that allow it to continue to oversee Gaza, while the second phase would see Hamas disarm and Gaza demilitarized. In a meeting with the premier yesterday, the far-right ministers focused on the second phase of the deal, seeking “explicit guarantees” from Netanyahu that Israel would be able to resume fighting Hamas if the terror group does not disarm, according to the Hebrew network. Netanyahu reportedly gave the ministers the impression that if Hamas does not disarm, Israel will be able to act —- though such a guarantee does not appear anywhere in the US proposal’s current 20 points. According to anonymous sources, Ben Gvir and Smotrich left the meeting feeling Netanyahu had not provided sufficient assurances on the issue, but decided that, for the time being, they would give the premier more time to carry out the arrangement while warning that they would not tolerate Hamas restoring its capabilities in Gaza. Ahead of yesterday’s meeting, Ben Gvir, who leads the Otzma Yehudit party, said that his faction will leave the government if Hamas “continues to exist” after the return of the hostages held in Gaza. The Times of Israel Community. The stability of the Israeli government and the viability of a U.S.-backed Gaza peace proposal face significant internal headwinds. Far-right coalition partners, specifically National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, have conditioned their support for the deal's first phase on receiving "explicit guarantees" from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Their core demand is that Israel retains the ability to resume military action if Hamas does not disarm in the deal's second phase. A critical uncertainty arises from the fact that while Netanyahu reportedly gave the impression of agreement, such a guarantee is not present in the U.S. proposal's text. Although the ministers have granted Netanyahu a temporary reprieve, the threat to exit the government if Hamas "continues to exist" post-hostage release remains potent. This dynamic introduces a high degree of political fragility, creating a precarious situation where the peace process could collapse due to internal Israeli politics, potentially leading to renewed conflict or a government crisis.

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Key Decisions for Investors

  • Investors should closely monitor the stability of the Israeli governing coalition, as threats from far-right parties to withdraw represent a significant risk of political turmoil and policy uncertainty.
  • Given the discrepancy between domestic political assurances and the reported terms of the international peace proposal, a heightened risk of deal failure and potential for renewed regional conflict exists, warranting a review of portfolio exposure to Israeli assets and regional geopolitical risk.
  • The situation's outcome is highly dependent on negotiations over the deal's second phase, therefore any long-term positions should account for the binary risk of either a fragile peace or a return to full-scale military operations.