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NKT lifts 2025 outlook after record Q3 earnings and strong project wins

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NKT lifts 2025 outlook after record Q3 earnings and strong project wins

NKT reported a strong quarter with revenue of €726m (vs. €657m a year earlier) and operational EBITDA of €119m, an 11% organic increase that lifted the margin to 16.4% (from 14.2%); EBT was €88m and net income €67m. Management sees full‑year revenue of about €2.65–2.75bn and operational EBITDA of €360–390m, and announced two major wins—preferred bidder status for the UK Eastern Green Link 3 interconnector and a ~€650m Bornholm‑Zealand cable contract—helping lift the high‑voltage backlog to €10.4bn (€9.2bn at standard metal prices) concentrated with European TSOs and skewed toward interconnectors and offshore wind. While free cash flow was negative €102m due to capex-led capacity expansion, operating cash flow improved to €68m, net interest‑bearing debt is negative €640m with €1.28bn liquidity and a 41% solvency ratio, leaving the company with solid contract visibility but near‑term cash absorption from expansion projects.

Analysis

NKT reported operational EBITDA of €119 million in the quarter, an 11% organic increase year-on-year, with revenue of €726 million versus €657 million in Q3 2024 and an operational EBITDA margin rising to 16.4% from 14.2%. Earnings before tax were €88 million and net result from continuing operations was €67 million, supporting management guidance of full-year revenue of approximately €2.65–2.75 billion and operational EBITDA of €360–390 million and an aspiration to finish 2025 at the top of that range. Commercially, NKT announced preferred-bidder status for the UK Eastern Green Link 3 interconnector (~680 km) and a ~€650 million Energinet contract to link Bornholm to Zealand (200 km offshore, 17 km onshore) with commissioning expected in 2032; the Bornholm award contributed to a high-voltage backlog of €10.4 billion (€9.2 billion at standard metal prices). Backlog composition (~90% European TSOs, ~55% interconnectors, ~40% offshore wind) materially increases multi-year revenue visibility, though Eastern Green Link 3 was not yet included in the backlog. Liquidity and balance-sheet metrics show improved operating cash flow of €68 million (vs. -€19 million a year earlier) but negative free cash flow of €102 million driven by capex for capacity expansion in Sweden, Germany, Denmark and Portugal; working capital is negative €1.09 billion, net interest-bearing debt is negative €640 million, liquidity reserves €1.28 billion and solvency 41%. The company has a net-cash-like position and sizeable contract coverage, but near-term cash absorption, capital intensity and long project lead-times are the primary execution risks to monitor.