US could reclassify marijuana today. Will it be legal in Florida?

The immediate market read-through is not “legalization,” but a step-function improvement in the financing and tax profile of the regulated cannabis ecosystem. The biggest near-term beneficiary is the sector’s cash-flow statement: if the rescheduling is finalized, the industry’s ability to deduct ordinary business expenses should expand after-tax earnings far more than any top-line effect from demand shifts. That matters because many operators are effectively priced as distressed growth equities; even a modest multiple re-rate from “policy lottery ticket” to “regulated consumer/healthcare hybrid” can drive outsized moves in the most levered names.

Second-order winners are not just cultivators, but the picks-and-shovels around compliance, testing, packaging, and state-licensed distribution. A federal scheduling change also lowers one key overhang for mainstream capital allocators, which could compress financing spreads for MSOs over the next 6–18 months even if full federal legalization remains remote. The deeper takeaway is that rescheduling is a capital-markets event before it is a consumption event: cheaper capital, broader bankability, and better liquidity can matter more than store-level sales growth in the next leg.

The contrarian risk is that the market may be extrapolating too quickly from symbolic progress to durable legislative change. If the process gets delayed, diluted, or challenged administratively, speculative cannabis equities can give back gains fast because their valuation support is narrative-sensitive and balance sheets remain fragile. A second risk: once the tax benefit is partially monetized, the valuation multiple may not expand much further without actual state-level legalization or interstate commerce, so the best risk/reward is likely in names with the cleanest balance sheets and the largest tax sensitivity, not the most beta to the headline.