Most Americans plan to spend less on holiday gifts: Survey

A new NBC News Decision Desk poll of 20,252 U.S. adults (Nov. 20–Dec. 8; ±1.9 pts) finds 55% plan to spend less on holiday gifts than last year, 36% plan to spend about the same and 9% plan to spend more, while 41% say their personal finances are about the same year-over-year, 35% worse and 24% better; the results signal potential downside for consumer-driven holiday retail sales and broader spending. The story includes competing political narratives—President Trump touted sharply improving prices and a strong economy, while Democrats blamed tariffs and rising costs for eroding household purchasing power—underscoring the political debate around affordability amid signs of constrained consumer budgets.

Analysis

An NBC News Decision Desk poll of 20,252 U.S. adults conducted Nov. 20–Dec. 8 (±1.9 percentage points) finds 55% of respondents say they will spend less on holiday gifts versus last year, 36% expect to spend about the same and 9% plan to spend more. The poll also reports 41% view their personal finances as about the same year-over-year, 35% worse and 24% better, signaling constrained discretionary budgets for a plurality of households.

The survey outcome points to downside risk for consumer-discretionary and holiday-driven retail revenue this season because a majority of respondents intend to cut gift spending; the provided sentiment signals classify the news as moderately negative (sentiment score -0.45) with a modest market impact score of 0.35, suggesting selective rather than marketwide pressure. Retailers that rely heavily on discretionary gift purchases or that lack pricing power are most exposed to lower consumer spend.

Political framing in the article — President Trump’s assertion of improving prices versus Democratic criticism blaming tariffs and rising costs — heightens policy and narrative risk that could influence consumer confidence and media-driven sentiment. The result is directional but not definitive: stated spending intentions may not fully translate into retail outcomes and remain subject to revision as actual sales and retailer guidance are reported.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Reassess exposure to consumer-discretionary and small-format retailers that depend on holiday gift volumes and consider trimming or hedging positions given 55% of respondents plan to spend less
• Prioritize monitoring real-time retail indicators — same-store sales, early holiday sales releases, retailer guidance and Black Friday/Cyber Monday data — to confirm whether intentions materialize into revenues
• Lean toward defensive consumer staples or retailers with differentiated value propositions and pricing power, as these are less sensitive to discretionary cutbacks
• Track policy and tariff developments and incoming inflation/affordability data since political narratives in the article could materially affect consumer sentiment and near-term retail performance