Cost of Thanksgiving Dinner Declines

The American Farm Bureau Federation’s 40th annual Thanksgiving dinner survey finds the cost of a classic Thanksgiving meal for 10 averaged $55.18 ($5.52 per person) in 2025, down 5% year-over-year and marking a third consecutive decline from the 2022 peak of $64.05; the drop is driven largely by a more than 16% fall in retail frozen-turkey prices (a 16‑lb frozen bird averages $21.50 or $1.34/lb) as retailers pursue promotions even while fresh turkey wholesale prices are higher. Half the surveyed items fell in price—notably rolls and stuffing aided by low wheat prices—while fresh produce saw sharp increases (veggie trays +61%, sweet potatoes +37%) due to weather damage, labor shortages and volatile supply chains; adding boneless ham, Russets and frozen green beans raises the menu cost to $77.09. The AFBF notes that lower demand and ongoing flock rebuilding after avian influenza underpin the turkey-price dynamics, while the sector faces structural pressure—15,000 U.S. farms were lost last year—prompting calls for congressional action and signaling consolidation risks and policy-sensitive headwinds for agricultural supply chains and related investments.

Analysis

The American Farm Bureau Federation’s 40th Thanksgiving survey shows the cost of a classic holiday meal for 10 averaged $55.18 ($5.52 per person) in 2025, a 5% decline from 2024 and the third consecutive annual drop from the 2022 peak of $64.05. The decline is led by a more than 16% fall in the retail price of a 16-pound frozen turkey to $21.50 ($1.34/lb), while the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service data indicate feature prices for frozen turkeys fell further in mid-November as retailers promoted whole birds.

Half of the survey items declined, notably rolls and stuffing aided by low wheat prices, but fresh produce showed acute volatility with a veggie tray up ~61% and sweet potatoes up ~37% due to hurricane damage in North Carolina, labor shortages and rising farm wages. Farm Bureau commentary notes lower demand and ongoing flock rebuilding after avian influenza as structural factors for turkey pricing, while fresh-produce spikes reflect short-term supply shocks and high sensitivity to weather and labor.

The survey highlights policy and structural risk: the association cites the loss of 15,000 U.S. farms last year and urges congressional action, signaling consolidation risk for supply chains and potential long-term price or availability pressure. For investors, these dynamics imply near-term retail promotional and commodity-price opportunities but heightened idiosyncratic risk for producers exposed to weather, labor and consolidation trends.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor USDA AMS feature-price reports and retail turkey promotions for short-term trading windows; consider tactical exposure to grocery retailers that can drive traffic with loss-leading holiday promotions
• Reduce or hedge direct exposure to fresh-produce-specialist suppliers vulnerable to weather and labor shocks given reported 61% and 37% price swings for veggie trays and sweet potatoes, respectively
• Favor larger, diversified agricultural processors or vertically integrated suppliers over small, regionally concentrated farms because the Farm Bureau flagged the loss of 15,000 farms and potential consolidation and policy risk
• Use regional price dispersion (classic meal cheapest in the South at $50.01 and most expensive in the West at $61.75) when assessing regional grocer and distributor footprints for merchandising and margin sensitivity