Earnings Preview: Mattel (MAT) Q2 Earnings Expected to Decline

Mattel (MAT) is forecast to report a year-over-year decline in Q2 2025 earnings, with consensus estimates projecting $0.18 EPS (-5.3% YoY) on $1.08 billion in revenue (-0.1% YoY). Despite a history of earnings beats, the company's current Zacks Earnings ESP of -8.57% combined with a Zacks Rank of #4 suggests a bearish analyst sentiment, making a positive earnings surprise for the upcoming report unlikely.

Analysis

Mattel (MAT) faces a challenging outlook for its upcoming Q2 2025 earnings report, with consensus estimates pointing to a year-over-year decline in both profitability and sales. Wall Street expects earnings per share of $0.18, a 5.3% decrease, on revenues of $1.08 billion, which are projected to be flat with a marginal 0.1% decline. While the consensus EPS estimate has been stable over the past 30 days, more recent analyst revisions signal growing pessimism. This is captured by the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) of -8.57%, which indicates that the most recent analyst estimates are lower than the broader consensus. Compounding this negative signal is the stock's Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell), a combination that statistically reduces the probability of a positive earnings surprise. This bearish quantitative setup presents a notable contrast to Mattel's strong historical performance, where the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates for the past four consecutive quarters, including a significant +72.73% beat in the last reported period. The current data suggests that despite this track record, the risk profile heading into the July 23rd announcement is skewed to the downside.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the bearish combination of a Zacks Rank #4 and a negative Earnings ESP of -8.57%, investors should consider hedging or reducing exposure ahead of the earnings release due to the heightened risk of a miss.
• Pay close attention to management's commentary on the earnings call, as any discussion of business conditions will be critical in determining whether the expected weakness is a temporary issue or indicative of a longer-term trend.
• Despite the company's strong history of earnings beats, the current negative indicators suggest that initiating new long positions is risky; it may be prudent to wait for the actual results and forward guidance before committing capital.