Corn Showing Weakness on Thursday

Corn futures are trading lower by 2-3 cents, with the national average cash price also declining to $3.79 ½. This downward trend is observed despite an improved USDA Export Sales report, which indicated 1.23 MMT of 2025/26 corn sold, including a private sale to Mexico. Meanwhile, CONAB forecasts Brazil's 2025/26 corn crop to decrease slightly to 138.28 MMT, despite an expected increase in acreage, presenting a complex outlook for future supply.

Analysis

Corn futures are exhibiting short-term price weakness, with contracts trading 2 to 3 cents lower and the national average cash price declining to $3.79 ½. This bearish price action contrasts with strong underlying demand fundamentals indicated by the latest USDA Export Sales report. Weekly sales for the 2025/26 crop reached 1.23 MMT, a figure that, while within analyst estimates, is a significant 45.4% higher than the same week last year and an improvement over the prior week's figures. Forward demand is further reinforced by a private sale of 110,000 MT to Mexico. On the supply side, Brazil's CONAB projects a slightly tighter global balance sheet, forecasting the 2025/26 crop at 138.28 MMT, a decrease of 1.42 MMT from the current marketing year. Critically, this projected production decline comes despite an expected 770,000-hectare increase in planted acreage, implying an assumption of lower yields which introduces a key variable to monitor.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should note the divergence between the current negative price momentum and the robust forward-looking demand signals, particularly the 45.4% year-over-year increase in US export sales, which could present a buying opportunity if fundamentals begin to outweigh short-term sentiment.
• The Brazilian crop forecast is a critical factor; closely monitor weather patterns and yield projections from South America, as the forecasted production decline is predicated on lower yields, not reduced planting.
• Given the mixed signals, consider waiting for price stabilization or a clear technical reversal before establishing new long positions in corn futures or related ETPs like CORN, or alternatively, use the current price weakness to scale into a long-term position with defined risk management.