
With the S&P at lofty multiples the author recommends defensive, cash-generative growth names—Costco, Amazon and Uber—each backed by structural moats and multi-year growth forecasts. Costco benefits from membership-driven profits: cardholders rose from 105.5M to 140.6M (FY2020–FY2025), renewal rates climbed to 90.5%, warehouses to 914, it plans 35 more openings in fiscal 2026, and analysts forecast 7% revenue and 20% EPS CAGRs through FY2028 despite a 45x current-year P/E. Amazon’s AWS and >240M Prime subs underpin an 11% revenue and 20% EPS CAGR (2024–2027), with expanding advertising and AI catalysts and a ~28x forward P/E, while Uber has scaled to 189M monthly active consumers and 36M Uber One subs, turned GAAP-profitable, and is seen growing revenue and adjusted EBITDA at 16% and 28% CAGRs (2024–2027) at an enterprise value of $190.5B (~17x next-year adj. EBITDA).
The piece frames investment selection against an S&P 500 trading near a historic ~30x earnings multiple and argues for defensive, cash-generative “evergreen” names: Costco, Amazon, and Uber. Costco’s thesis rests on membership economics and scale: cardholders rose from 105.5 million to 140.6 million between fiscal 2020 and fiscal 2025, renewal rates improved from 88% to 90.5%, warehouses increased from 795 to 914, it raised membership fees in 2024, plans 35 more openings in fiscal 2026, and analysts forecast a 7% revenue CAGR and 20% EPS CAGR through fiscal 2028 despite a ~45x current P/E. Amazon’s strengths are AWS profitability, a Prime base of more than 240 million subscribers, and an expanding advertising business; analysts model 11% revenue and 20% EPS CAGRs for 2024–2027 and value the stock at roughly 28x next year’s earnings. Uber has scaled to 189 million monthly active platform consumers and 36 million Uber One subscribers, has returned to GAAP profitability over the past two years, and faces analyst expectations of 16% revenue and 28% adjusted EBITDA CAGRs for 2024–2027 with an enterprise value of $190.5 billion (~17x next-year adj. EBITDA), making it a growth-at-a-reasonable-price candidate but one that depends on continued user and margin expansion.
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