Oscars Ratings Hit 17.9 Million Viewers, Down 9% From Last Year and Lowest Since 2022

17.86 million viewers watched the 98th Academy Awards (ABC + Hulu), down 9% from 19.7 million last year; the telecast averaged a 3.92 rating among adults 18-49 (down from 4.54). Despite the decline, Disney reported the Oscars were the No. 1 primetime entertainment telecast of the 2025-26 season, with social impressions up +42.4% and Academy social platforms rising to 21.6 million (and >129 million video views). Disney retains broadcast rights through 2028 before YouTube's rights begin with the 101st ceremony in 2029.

Analysis

The ceremony’s weaker linear audience but materially stronger social/video engagement accelerates an ongoing shift: value is migrating from single-night linear reach to aggregated, addressable video impressions across platforms. For a rights-holder like Disney this implies bifurcated economics — downward pressure on premium linear CPMs but higher yield per impression from first‑party/HULU+social packages; modeling a 5–10% linear CPM drag over 12–24 months is plausible, offset by potentially 10–25% higher digital monetization if inventory is productized correctly.

Competitively, the 2029 YouTube deal is a strategic inflection for the category, compressing the long-run value of traditional broadcast as Google can (a) use superior targeting to extract incremental ad dollars and (b) bundle live-event video into YouTube/Google Ads ecosystems. That raises second‑order winners: ad tech and identity/data plays (better yield per impression), and losers: broadcasters relying on upfront linear guarantees without rapid productization of cross-platform measurement.

Key risks and catalysts span timeframes: days — ad buyers’ immediate reactions in upfront negotiations and repricing discussions; months — real CPM refeeds across network upfronts (next 6–12 months) that could feed through to reported Media Networks revenue; years — the rights shift to YouTube (and its monetization effectiveness) which could reallocate tens of millions in annual ad spend. A reversal could come from format changes that create viral moments or an advertiser re‑concentration behind a few marquee live events, which would materially restore linear pricing power.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Pair trade — Long Alphabet (GOOGL) 18–36 month LEAP calls (to play YouTube’s live-event monetization) / Short Disney (DIS) 12–24 month covered-call collar. Rationale: capture secular upside in targeted video ad yield while collecting premium on DIS as linear ad risk re-prices. Risk/Reward: pay premium on LEAPs (100% downside to premium), offset by limited downside in DIS via collar; upside >2x if YouTube extracts high CPMs on live events.
• Tactical overweight — Small overweight in Disney equity (DIS) for 6–18 months but sell 6–12 month calls to monetize near-term sideways to down linear outcomes. Rationale: Disney retains diversified cash flows (parks, streaming) and can productize digital inventory; collecting option premium reduces carry if linear ad blips persist. Risk/Reward: capped upside to sold calls; downside mitigated by position size and premium.
• Ad‑tech exposure — Buy programmatic/ad‑measurement names (example: trade a basket of ad tech/measurement leaders) with 12–24 month horizon. Rationale: secular shift to addressable live‑video increases demand for measurement and identity solutions; expect 20–40% upside if advertisers reallocate. Risk: slower adoption/measurement standards delay monetization, potential full drawdown of position premium if mis-timed.
• Event short (alpha) — Small, opportunistic short of niche broadcast peers/heavy linear revenue broadcasters into the next two upfront cycles (e.g., 6–12 months). Rationale: those with less diversified streaming footprints are most exposed to CPM compression. Risk/Reward: high idiosyncratic risk from event-driven spikes; keep tight stops and size small.