J.P. Morgan said it has withdrawn its forecast for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in December after a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report, mirroring a similar move by Morgan Stanley; the bank still expects the next cuts to occur in January and April. The revision pushes near-term easing expectations into early next year, underscoring a shorter window for rate relief and potential implications for asset allocation and market positioning into year-end.
J.P. Morgan withdrew its forecast for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in December after a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report, mirroring a similar revision by Morgan Stanley and explicitly retaining expectations for cuts in January and April. The straight report cites the late-Thursday note from the Wall Street brokerage and flags a moved timeline for easing decisions. Shifting the first cut into January compresses the window for near-term rate relief and imparts a hawkish tone to market expectations; Reuters signals show a mildly negative sentiment score (-0.25) and a modest market-impact score (0.35). This revision increases the probability that short-term policy rates will remain higher through year-end until additional labor-market or Fed communications provide clarity. For portfolio implications, the development implies potential pressure on rate-sensitive assets and the need to reassess duration and positioning into year-end, while underscoring that analyst-rate forecasts are responsive to incoming macro data. Investors should monitor monthly jobs prints and Fed guidance closely as the primary drivers that could reopen December easing odds or confirm the shifted January/April timeline.
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mildly negative
Sentiment Score
-0.25
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