Bloomberg analyst puts odds of Litecoin, Solana and XRP ETF approvals at 100% after 19b-4s rendered 'meaningless'

Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas has raised the odds of SEC approval for spot Litecoin, Solana, and XRP ETFs to 100%, citing the agency's new generic listing standards which have rendered 19b-4 filings and their deadlines "meaningless." This regulatory shift effectively fast-tracks pending applications, suggesting these ETFs could launch imminently and potentially leading to over 100 crypto ETF launches within the next year, mirroring the impact of similar standards on traditional ETFs.

Analysis

Bloomberg analyst puts odds of Litecoin, Solana and XRP ETF approvals at 100% after 19b-4s rendered 'meaningless' Quick Take - The odds of SEC approval for new spot crypto ETFs — including Litecoin, Solana, and XRP — are “100% now,” according to Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas. - Some ETF products could launch within days after the agency’s new generic listing standards for crypto ETFs rendered 19b-4 forms and their deadlines “meaningless,” he said. The Securities and Exchange Commission's approval of several new spot crypto exchange-traded funds in the U.S. is now seen as effectively a given after the agency's new generic listing standards made the prior 19b-4 deadline process moot, according to Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas. "Honestly, the odds are really 100% now," Balchunas posted to X, referring to crypto ETF products that Bloomberg previously predicted had a 90% to 95% chance of approval by the end of the year. "Generic listing standards make the 19b-4s and their 'clock' meaningless. That just leaves the S-1s waiting for a formal green light from [the SEC's Division of Corporation Finance]. And they just submitted amendment 4 for Solana. The baby could come any day. Be ready." The SEC deadlines for potential approval of various issuers' Litecoin, Solana, and XRP ETFs were set for Oct. 2, Oct. 10, and Oct. 17, respectively. However, the SEC could now approve or deny these at any time. Alongside fellow Bloomberg ETF Analyst James Seyffart, Balchunas had earlier raised the odds of approval for Litecoin, Solana, and XRP ETFs to 95% in June, as well as a range of crypto index ETF products. The chances of approval for several Dogecoin, Cardano, Polkadot, Hedera, and Avalanche ETFs were increased to 90% at the same time. The 19b-4 filings were part of a two-step application process with the SEC, filed by exchanges such as Nasdaq, NYSE Arca, and Cboe BZX on behalf of crypto ETF issuers. If acknowledged by the SEC and published on the Federal Register, that started the clock on the agency's approval and deadline process. The other important form, the S-1 registration statement, is filed by issuers and doesn't result in any deadlines. Balchunas' comments follow a slew of recent 19b-4 withdrawals for Solana, XRP, Cardano, Litecoin, Dogecoin, Polkadot, and Hedera ETFs, as well as Ethereum staking ETFs, the SEC's website shows, following its generic listing standards approval. The crypto ETF fast-track The SEC approved the new exchange listing standards for crypto ETFs on an accelerated basis earlier this month, saying it had "good cause" to act early. The move fast-tracks pending crypto ETF applications and cuts potential review timelines for new submissions from 240 days to as little as 75. Nasdaq, NYSE Arca, and Cboe BZX Exchange can now list and trade crypto funds that meet the generic standards without filing new 19b-4 forms, provided the underlying asset has a futures contract listed on any designated contract market for at least six months, among other criteria. One such designated contract market is Coinbase Derivatives, which, in addition to Bitcoin and Ethereum, includes futures for Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, Dogecoin, Polkadot, Avalanche, Chainlink, Stellar, Solana, Hedera, Cardano, and XRP, Balchunas noted at the time. "The last time they implemented generic listings standards for [stock and bond] ETFs, launches tripled," he added. "Good chance we see north of 100 crypto ETFs launched in the next 12 months." Following the debut of U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in January and July 2024, respectively, dozens of new spot crypto ETF filings now await approval from the SEC. Since Paul Atkins became the agency's new chairman in April, he has promised a friendlier approach to digital assets. Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures. © 2025 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. The regulatory pathway for U.S. spot crypto ETFs has materially changed, significantly increasing the probability and accelerating the timeline for new product launches beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. According to Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas, the SEC's approval of new generic listing standards has rendered the prior 19b-4 filing process and its associated deadlines 'meaningless,' leading him to raise approval odds for spot Litecoin, Solana, and XRP ETFs to 100%. This new framework fast-tracks applications, cutting potential review periods from 240 days down to as few as 75. The primary condition is that the underlying asset must have a futures contract listed on a designated market, such as Coinbase Derivatives, for at least six months. This positions not only Litecoin, Solana, and XRP for imminent approval—with Solana's S-1 registration already at amendment 4—but also opens the door for other assets like Dogecoin, Cardano, and Polkadot. The precedent for such regulatory streamlining is strong; similar standards for traditional ETFs led to a tripling of new launches, fueling predictions of over 100 new crypto ETFs within the next 12 months. This shift is further supported by a more favorable regulatory tone under new SEC Chairman Paul Atkins.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the perceived 100% probability of approval, investors should evaluate positions in Litecoin (LTC), Solana (SOL), and XRP, as the launch of spot ETFs represents a significant near-term catalyst for institutional inflows and price discovery.
• Consider exposure to second-wave beneficiaries such as Cardano (ADA), Polkadot (DOT), and Dogecoin (DOGE), which meet the key criterion of having established futures markets and are likely next in line for ETF filings under the new accelerated process.
• Look beyond the assets themselves to ecosystem players; infrastructure providers like Coinbase (COIN), which serves as a key designated derivatives market, stand to benefit directly from the increased trading volume and demand for new ETF products.
• Monitor the SEC's Division of Corporation Finance for S-1 approvals, as this is the final hurdle for launch, and be prepared for potential market volatility and capital rotation as a large number of new products could enter the market in a compressed timeframe.