Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures rise as Trump's tax bill heads to House

U.S. equities, notably the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, reached new record highs on Wednesday, driven by optimism from a new U.S.-Vietnam trade deal and increased expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. This sentiment was bolstered by June's ADP report, which unexpectedly showed a 33,000 private sector job cut—the first decline in over two years—intensifying focus on Thursday's official jobs report as a key determinant for Fed policy. Concurrently, Apple and Tesla shares gained on company-specific news, while Intel declined on reports of scrapping a key chipmaking process, and healthcare insurers like Centene plunged after withdrawing guidance amid concerns over federal spending cuts.

Analysis

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reached new all-time highs, closing at 6,277.42 and 20,393.13 respectively, propelled by a dual narrative of trade optimism and expectations of monetary easing. Investor sentiment was lifted by the announcement of a U.S.-Vietnam trade deal, which, despite imposing a 20% tariff, signals potential progress on trade negotiations ahead of a July 9 deadline. Concurrently, prospects for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut intensified following a surprisingly weak ADP report, which showed an unexpected private sector job loss of 33,000 for June—the first such decline in over two years. This has sharply increased the focus on the upcoming official jobs report as a key determinant for Fed policy, with CME data showing markets are now pricing in at least one rate cut by September. However, this broad market strength masks significant underlying divergences. The healthcare insurance sector faced a sharp sell-off, exemplified by Centene's (CNC) stock plunging over 25% after it withdrew its 2025 guidance, citing a potential $1.8 billion federal payout shortfall and adverse enrollment trends, a risk amplified by a Senate bill aimed at cutting healthcare spending. In the technology sector, Intel (INTC) shares dropped 3.7% on reports its new CEO is scrapping the crucial 18A chipmaking process for external clients, a major blow to its turnaround strategy. In contrast, Apple (AAPL) rose on an upgrade citing strong China sales, and Tesla (TSLA) climbed despite missing delivery forecasts, as production numbers exceeded expectations.

Key Decisions for Investors

• The market's near-term direction is highly dependent on the forthcoming official June jobs report; a confirmation of the labor weakness shown in the ADP data would likely solidify bets for a September Fed rate cut, whereas a stronger-than-expected figure could trigger a pullback.
• Investors should exercise extreme caution with health insurance stocks such as Centene (CNC) and Elevance Health (ELV), as the sector faces severe headwinds from both negative company-specific guidance and significant legislative risk related to federal healthcare spending.
• The strategic pivot away from the 18A process at Intel (INTC) represents a material risk to its turnaround and competitive standing against TSMC, warranting a reassessment of its long-term valuation and positioning within the semiconductor sector.
• While mega-cap tech drives index performance, focus on company-specific catalysts, such as Robinhood's (HOOD) expansion-fueled rally or Tesla's (TSLA) mixed delivery-versus-production results, to identify opportunities and risks that are masked by the broader market trend.