Acciona shares rise as Nordex lifts marging guidance

Nordex Group significantly raised its 2025 EBITDA margin guidance to 7.5%-8.5% from 5.0%-7.0% following robust preliminary third-quarter results, which saw EBITDA nearly double to €136 million with an 8.0% margin. This improved outlook, attributed to strong operational execution, boosted shares of major stakeholder Acciona by 1.5%. Analysts at Kepler view the update as "very significant," projecting a 15%-20% rise in Nordex shares and anticipating 2026 adjusted EBITDA to reach approximately €750 million, 20% above current consensus, driven by an implied 11% Q4 2025 margin that surpasses mid-term objectives.

Analysis

Nordex Group has significantly upgraded its 2025 EBITDA margin guidance to 7.5%-8.5% from the previous 5.0%-7.0%, driven by robust preliminary Q3 results. The wind turbine manufacturer reported Q3 EBITDA of €136 million, an 89% increase compared to Q4 2024, with its EBITDA margin nearly doubling to 8.0% from 4.3% year-over-year. This improved outlook stems from strong operational execution in both project and service segments and stable macroeconomic conditions.

Kepler Cheuvreux described this guidance revision as "very significant," anticipating a 15%-20% rise in Nordex's shares. Major stakeholder Acciona, which holds a 47% stake and fully consolidates Nordex, saw its shares increase by 1.5% following the announcement. The positive sentiment reflects the direct financial impact on Acciona's consolidated statements.

Analysts now expect Nordex's full-year adjusted EBITDA to rise by approximately 22% to €600 million, up from €494 million. The updated guidance implies a strong 11% adjusted EBITDA margin for Q4 2025, surpassing the company's 8% mid-term objective and the 7.6% 2026 consensus. Kepler further projects 2026 adjusted EBITDA to reach €750 million, a 20% premium over current consensus, indicating sustained operational strength.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should evaluate Nordex's revised 2025 EBITDA margin guidance and strong Q3 operational performance as a significant positive signal for the company's fundamental strength.
• Consider the positive implications for Acciona, given its substantial stake and full consolidation of Nordex, which directly benefits from improved profitability.
• Monitor Nordex's Q4 2025 performance for confirmation of the implied 11% EBITDA margin and watch for further analyst revisions to 2026 consensus estimates, which could drive additional upside.