JetBlue Airways (JBLU) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Can the Stock Move Higher?

JetBlue Airways (JBLU) is anticipated to report a substantial year-over-year decline for the quarter ended June 2025, with consensus estimates projecting a $0.31 loss per share (down 487.5%) on $2.29 billion in revenue (down 5.8%). Despite these negative forecasts and a 57.14% reduction in consensus EPS estimates over the past month, Zacks' analysis, combining a +0.54% Earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3, indicates a high probability that JBLU will beat the lowered EPS consensus. This potential positive earnings surprise, consistent with JetBlue's recent history of beating estimates, could drive near-term stock movement.

Analysis

JetBlue Airways (JBLU) faces a challenging fundamental outlook for its upcoming June 2025 quarterly report, with consensus estimates projecting a significant year-over-year deterioration. Wall Street expects a loss of $0.31 per share, a 487.5% decline from the prior year, on revenues of $2.29 billion, down 5.8%. Underscoring this pessimistic view, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 57.14% over the last 30 days. However, a key technical indicator suggests a high probability of a positive earnings surprise. The company's Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) is a positive 0.54%, indicating that the most recent analyst estimates are more bullish than the consensus. When combined with its Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), this setup has historically led to an earnings beat nearly 70% of the time. This potential is further supported by JetBlue's track record of surpassing consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters. In contrast, competitor American Airlines (AAL) shows a negative ESP of -0.18%, making a beat on its own declining estimates less predictable.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a history of earnings beats, investors might consider a short-term tactical long position in JBLU ahead of its July 29th report to capitalize on a potential positive price reaction to an EPS surprise.
• Despite the likelihood of an earnings beat, the underlying forecast of a steep year-over-year decline in revenue and profitability warrants caution; the sustainability of any stock appreciation will heavily depend on management's forward-looking guidance provided during the earnings call.
• The contrast between JetBlue's positive ESP and American Airlines' negative ESP suggests a potential pair trade opportunity, going long JBLU and short AAL, to isolate the impact of a relative earnings surprise between the two carriers.